The price of Vietnamese coffee continues its upward trend

In March this year, coffee prices in the Central Highlands provinces of Vietnam continued to remain high. On March 20, the price reached a record high of 135,000 VND/kg, marking the highest level ever recorded up to that point. After a slight decrease in the following days, by March 26, the price once again surpassed 35,000 VND/kg, reaching 35,400 VND/kg in Dak Lak and Dak Nong, while in Gia Lai, it was 35,300 VND/kg. According to information from Mr. Do Ha Nam, Vice President of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), at one point in March, coffee prices even surged to 137,000 VND/kg.

According to assessments from several coffee traders, it is currently very difficult to predict how high the price of Vietnamese coffee will go this year, but it is certain that prices will continue to rise in the near future due to the limited supply.

Vietnam’s coffee production is expected to decrease in the 2024/2025 crop year due to the prolonged drought in the Central Highlands during the dry season of 2024. Additionally, the coffee acreage continues to shrink as many coffee plantations intercropped with durian trees have been cut down by farmers, leaving only the durian trees to maintain eligibility for export certification codes for durian shipments to China. As a result, according to estimates from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, coffee output in the 2024/2025 crop year will only reach 27 million bags, a 5% decrease compared to the previous crop year. However, the latest forecasts suggest that production could be as low as 26.5 million bags.

This decline in production is also reflected in Vietnam's coffee exports for the 2024/2025 crop year. According to data from Vietnam Customs, during the first five months of the crop year (from October 2024 to February 2025), Vietnam’s coffee exports amounted to only 540,000 tons, a 22% decrease compared to the same period last year. In the first two months of 2025 alone, coffee exports dropped by 22% (reaching nearly 310,000 tons) compared to the same period in 2024.

For coffee farmers in Vietnam, the good profits made in 2024 due to high coffee prices have significantly eased financial pressure for the 2024/2025 crop year. As a result, most farmers are not rushing to sell their coffee immediately after harvest. Instead, they are taking a more strategic approach by holding onto their coffee and waiting for better prices before making sales. This proactive approach is one of the key factors that has contributed to maintaining high coffee prices in Vietnam this year.

The continued increase in global coffee prices during the first few months of this year has also had a direct impact on prices in Vietnam. At the New York exchange, Arabica coffee prices, which had risen by 70% in 2024, saw an additional increase of over 20% in early 2025, reaching a historic high of 4.3 USD per pound on February 11. Likewise, at the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices, which had surged by 72% in 2024, continued their upward trend in the early months of 2025, reaching a record peak of 5,847 USD per ton on February 12.

In line with the global price increase and the rising domestic prices, the export price of Vietnamese coffee has also seen significant growth. In February 2025, the average export price of Vietnamese coffee reached 5,678 USD per ton, marking a 4.4% increase compared to January 2025 and a remarkable 71% increase compared to February 2024. Over the first two months of the year, the average export price stood at 5,561 USD per ton, reflecting a 76% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

The rise in export prices has played a crucial role in boosting Vietnam's coffee export revenue despite the decline in production. In the first two months of 2025, Vietnam's coffee export turnover reached 1.72 billion USD, a 37% increase compared to the same period in 2024.

In the first two months of the year, Vietnam's coffee exports to most major markets such as the EU, the US, Japan, and Russia saw a decline compared to the same period last year. However, the export revenue still experienced double-digit growth. Among these markets, the EU remained Vietnam's largest coffee export destination, with 146,000 tons valued at 809 million USD. While the volume decreased by 9.5%, the value increased by 62% compared to the same period last year.

$ 1 = VND 25.435 - Source: Vietcombank.