Global animal production to grow 14% in the next decade

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) have made this forecast in a report on future food production and demand through 2034.

Animal product consumption will increase, particularly in emerging countries with growing prosperity. However, this consumption will remain highest in high-income countries. In the poorest regions, animal product consumption will remain low.

Consumption rising

It is expected that over the next 10 years, meat, fish, and dairy consumption will increase by 13%. As with per capita consumption, growth is expected primarily in middle-income countries, where both population and prosperity are rising sharply.

In these countries, half of the growth is attributable to population growth, the other half to increased per capita consumption. In poor countries, per capita consumption will not increase, but total consumption will, as a result of population growth.

More food transport

Another striking aspect of the analysis is the increasing transport of food. In 10 years, 22% of all calories consumed will be imported from abroad. The need for transport is therefore increasing because production increasingly takes place far from the place of consumption. The report’s authors emphasise that this only increases the importance of international cooperation.

Increasing productivity

Increased production is partly achieved through increasing productivity per animal and per hectare. New technology, capital investments, and more intensive use of fertilisers and supplementary feed, particularly in mid-sized countries, are seen as the main drivers. However, expansion of agricultural land area is also expected, particularly in Africa and South Asia, where access to modern technology remains limited.

Greenhouse gas emissions

Greenhouse gas emissions from primary agriculture are expected to increase by 6%, less than the growth in production. Emissions per kilogramme of product will decrease. Meanwhile, experts believe that there is room for improvement. If available, low-emission methods are applied, a 15% productivity increase is possible, combined with a 7% reduction in emissions.