Rubber exports forecast to remain under downward pressure

Data from the Department of Customs show that Viet Nam's rubber exports in November 2025 reached 189,466 tons, with a value of nearly USD 323 million, up 5.4% in volume and 5.9% in value compared with the previous month. However, compared to the same period last year, exports continued to decline, down 17.8% in volume and 26.9% in value, marking the third consecutive month. Cumulatively in the first 11 months of 2025, Viet Nam exported 1.66 million tons of rubber worth USD 2.9 billion, down 6.3% in volume and 1.9% in value compared to the same period in 2024.

The average export price of rubber in November 2025 stood at USD 1,702/ton, increasing slightly by 0.5% over the previous month but decreasing by 11% compared to November 2024. Nevertheless, in the first 11 months of 2025, the average rubber export price still increased by 4.7% compared to the same period in 2024, reaching USD 1,752/ton.

In terms of export markets, cumulatively in the first 11 months of 2025, China remained Viet Nam's largest rubber export market, accounting for 73.4% of total exports, with a volume of nearly 1.22 million tons and a value of USD 2.11 billion. Compared to the same period in 2024, exports to China fell by 2.9% in volume but rose by 2% in value. The average export price of rubber to this market reached USD 1,877/ton, up 9.2% over the same period in 2024.

Exports to India, the second-largest consumption market, declined sharply in the first 11 months of 2025, reaching 70,724 tons worth USD 132.77 million, down 39.7% in volume and 34.1% in value compared to the same period in 2024.

In addition, rubber export volumes to the U.S., Germany, Russia, the Taiwan market, and Sri Lanka also decreased. By contrast, exports to Malaysia and Indonesia emerged as bright spots, with volumes reaching 45,656 tons and 43,621 tons, respectively, surging by 53.4% and 99.2% compared to the same period in 2024. As a result, Malaysia and Indonesia rose to become Viet Nam's third- and fourth-largest rubber export markets in the first 11 months of 2025.

However, the Viet Nam Rubber Association (VRA) noted that the rubber export turnover of USD 2.9 billion in the first 11 months of 2025 and an estimated USD 3.2 billion for the whole of 2025 reflects only exports of natural rubber latex. When all product groups across the rubber industry value chain are fully taken into account, including deeply processed rubber products (tires, gloves, and technical components) and rubberwood, the total export turnover of the entire industry in 2025 is estimated at around USD 11 billion, up approximately 3% compared to 2024.

Rubber exports are forecast to continue facing downward pressure, as global rubber consumption shows signs of slowing, according to projections by the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC).

* USD 1 = VND 26.295 (Source: Vietcombank)

In China, the world's largest rubber consumption market, automobile sales, the sector with the highest rubber usage, are weakening. At the same time, China's trend toward diversifying supply sources and increasing imports from multiple markets is further intensifying pressure on Viet Nam's rubber exports.