Vietnam's rubber exports see strong recovery as prices and production rise

The country's rubber sector is experiencing a robust recovery, driven by new harvest supplies and increasing demand from its primary market, China. This positive trend is clearly reflected in recent export data.

According to the General Department of Vietnam Customs, August 2025 saw an increase in rubber exports to most key markets compared to the same period last year, with some markets showing double- or even triple-digit growth. Specifically, exports to China surged by 18% to 159,000 tons, while Malaysia saw a 30% increase to nearly 4,580 tons. Exports to South Korea grew by 2.1% to 2,923 tons, and shipments to Indonesia jumped by 118% to 5,000 tons.

With growth across the majority of its crucial markets, Vietnam's total rubber exports continued their upward momentum in August, reaching 217,000 tons valued at 359 million USD. This represents a 3.3% increase in volume and a 4.1% increase in value compared to August 2024.

For the first eight months of 2025, Vietnam's rubber exports totaled 1.11 million tons, bringing in 1.98 billion USD. While the volume saw a slight 0.6% dip, the total value soared by 12.6% over the same period in 2024, largely due to higher prices. The average export price for the first eight months of the year was 1,775 USD per ton, an impressive 13.2% rise compared to the same period last year.

Notably, after falling to a one-year low in July, the average price of Vietnam's exported rubber rebounded in August, increasing by 2.2% from July 2025 and 0.8% from August 2024, to reach 1,658 USD per ton.

On the international market, rubber prices are also on an upward trend after several months of continuous decline. The primary driver behind this rise is concern over adverse weather conditions disrupting supply in major exporting nations. In recent weeks, persistent seasonal heavy rains across Southeast Asia have been seen, which could impact tapping operations and the production of natural rubber latex.

In early September, global rubber prices hit a five-month high amid fears that unfavorable weather in key production regions could disrupt and reduce global supply. The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC) reported that after a period of sluggish demand and abundant supply, these supply-disruption concerns have spurred buying activity, helping prices on the international market recover.

Global rubber consumption is projected to continue to increase this year, especially in China, the world's largest rubber importer. According to China's General Administration of Customs, in the first seven months of 2025, the country imported a total of 4.85 million tons of rubber, valued at 9.3 billion USD, a 20% increase in volume and a 58% increase in value compared to the same period in 2024.

China has ramped up its rubber imports to meet rising demand from its automotive tire manufacturing sector. Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) shows that in the first seven months of 2025, China's automobile production surpassed 18 million units, an increase of nearly 13% from the previous year.

The ANRPC forecasts that global natural rubber consumption for the full year of 2025 will increase by 1.3% over 2024, reaching 15.6 million tons. Consumption is expected to grow by 2.5% in China, 3.4% in India, 6.1% in Thailand, 7% in Indonesia, 2.6% in Malaysia, 1.5% in Vietnam, 6.7% in Sri Lanka, 110% in Cambodia, and 3.5% in other countries.

Competition is intensifying, with Thailand actively expanding its market share in China. The Rubber Authority of Thailand (RAOT) has partnered with China to export rubber via the Mekong River corridor, taking advantage of a zero-tariff agreement. The first shipment, consisting of 400 tons of cup lump rubber, is scheduled for September 2025.

The Agency of Foreign Trade (under the Ministry of Industry and Trade) anticipates that with increasing demand from China and the recovery of global rubber prices, Vietnam's rubber exports are poised for continued success in the final months of 2025.