Pangasius exports forecast to have a successful year

Positive growth of pangasius exports in most major markets

Pangasius exports have always been in a difficult and gloomy situation for the past 2 years due to the impacts caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. However, a significant rise in pangasius exports was observed in the first few months of this year.

The Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) informed that, in the first quarter of 2022, the export value of pangasius increased by nearly 90%, 2 times higher than that of the same period in 2021.

Ms. Ta Ha, VASEP pangasius market specialist, said that pangasius exports in the first quarter had shown positive growth in most major markets, including markets with triple-digit growth.

Pangasius exports to the US in the first three months this year specifically, increased by 123% over the same period in 2021, reaching over 160 million USD; exports to China - Hong Kong reached 183.4 million USD, which is an increase of over 163%…

The US and China are the two largest markets for Vietnamese pangasius. Therefore, the triple-digit growth in these markets has made an remarkable contribution to the significant proliferation of pangasius exports earlier this year.

Additionally, other important markets also had also seen high growth in the first 2 months this year. For example, the EU market reached nearly $46.7 million, up by 86.2% over the same period. And more importantly, the potential of exporting pangasius to leading markets is forecast to remain positive in the upcoming months.

The US market is recovering and strong demand is forecast to continue in the first half of this year. The addition of Vietnamese pangasius businesses enjoying the 0% anti-dumping tax rate according to the final results from the 17th review of the anti-dumping tax on pangasius imported from Vietnam announced by the US Department of Commerce, which is likely to help the pangasius export value to this market grow strongly in the near future.

Similar to many other agricultural and aquacultural products, pangasius exports to China from the beginning of the year still faced many difficulties because of this country's "Zero Covid" policy. In such context, the value of pangasius exported to China - Hong Kong increased nearly 2 times in the first quarter, signalling that this market is in great demand for pangasius.

Decrease in supply leads to increasing prices

In additional to the favourable market conditions, the promising outlook of Vietnam's pangasius export this year also comes from the global supply of white fish and particularly pangasius.

According to the National Fisheries Institute (NFI), the supply of 4 white fish species including: farmed catfish, Atlantic cod, Pacific cod and Alaska pollock will decrease this year.

Regarding pangasius, the global production is estimated at 3.1 million tons, down by 151,000 tons compared to the total output of about 3.25 million tons in 2021.

Vietnam remains as the world's largest pangasius producer, but the output is forecast to be only at 1.3 million tons, down by 200,000 tons compared to 1.5 million tons in 2021. The decrease in Vietnamese pangasius production was mainly due to difficulties in raising aquaculture in the third quarter of 2021 when the Mekong Delta provinces implemented social distancing in prevention of the Covid-19 pandemic.

The global supply of white fish is still significantly affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. According to VASEP, Russia is the world's leading supplier of white fish. Therefore, Russia's whitefish exports are greatly affected by EU and US sanctions, causing a significant shortage of white fish supply globally.

Reduced supply, while freight rates remained high along with other logistical difficulties, are also greatly affecting export prices of farmed whitefish. Therefore, according to the US National Fisheries Institute's forecast, the price of white fish will increase this year, including pangasius. In mid-April, export price of Vietnamese pangasius fillets was at US$3.4/kg, an increase of US$0.25/kg compared to the beginning of the year.

With promising market prospects, VASEP forecasts that in the second quarter of 2022, pangasius exports to major markets will maintain a positive growth and exports in the following quarters are also forecast to be favourable.