Indian shrimp encounters difficulty, Vietnam should promote a sustainable image

Indian farmers suffer heavy losses

The 50% reciprocal tariff imposed by the U.S. that takes effect on August 27 has pushed India's shrimp export sector into crisis, with revenues forecast to fall by 12%. This context opens up opportunities for competitors such as Vietnam, Ecuador, and Indonesia.

According to a report by India Ratings and Research (Ind-Ra), this tariff rate, combined with existing anti-dumping and countervailing duties, raises the effective tax rate on Indian shrimp in the U.S. market to over 58%.

The newly imposed tariff has generated knock-on effects across India's shrimp supply chain. Although the country's total shrimp export value increased by 13% in the first half of 2025, reaching USD 2.45 billion, this was largely driven by exporters rushing to ship orders before the tariff came into force.

The U.S. remains India's most important shrimp export market, accounting for 41% of volume and 48% of value in fiscal year 2024–2025. The decline in orders from this key market is forecast to trigger a sharp downturn in the second half of the year.

Indian shrimp farmers are now suffering the greatest losses. Hundreds of thousands of farming households, especially in Andhra Pradesh, which is India's "shrimp capital," are struggling with falling farm-gate prices. Export enterprises are reported to have cut purchase prices by 40 rupees (around USD 0.48) per kilogram to reduce part of the new tariff burden. Along with rising input costs (feed, seeds, etc.), many farmers are operating at near-zero profit and are being forced to consider abandoning shrimp farming.

Vietnamese shrimp could increase market share

While India faces a bleak outlook, competitors are ready to seize the opportunity from the market shift. Specifically, Ecuador, the world's largest shrimp exporter, enjoys a much lower tariff rate in the U.S.

According to Shrimpinsights, Ecuador exported 719,153 tons of shrimp in the first half of 2025, up 17% compared to the same period last year. This figure set an all-time record for both the first and second quarters. Export value surged even more sharply, reaching USD 3.79 billion, up 26% compared with the first half of 2024.

Vietnam is also favorably positioned to expand its market share. According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), Vietnam's shrimp exports in August 2025 reached USD 479 million, up nearly 19% compared to the same period in 2024. Cumulative export turnover in the first eight months increased by 23% to USD 2.97 billion, marking steady growth since the beginning of the year.

Chinese and Hong Kong markets continued to become the bright spots, with a growth of 62% in August. Thus, the eight-month export value reached USD 836 million, increasing by 75% and accounting for nearly 30% of Vietnam's total shrimp export turnover.

Vietnam's shrimp exports to the U.S. market reached USD 92.6 million, slightly up 1.4% over the same period last year, raising the total turnover in the first eight months to nearly USD 500 million. This underscores the importance of the U.S. as a key destination for Vietnamese shrimp, though trade policy developments pose growing challenges. The preliminary results of POR19, significantly higher anti-dumping duties compared with previous reviews, countervailing duties, and reciprocal tariffs, could heavily impact Vietnam's competitive advantage.

The EU market continued to maintain a positive growth trend, reaching USD 66.9 million in August, up 19% compared to the same period. Cumulative eight-month exports reached approximately USD 376 million, up more than 17%. Germany, Belgium, and France continue to lead demand, while the Netherlands primarily serves as a transshipment hub. With annual demand forecast to hit record highs, the EU remains a crucial market for Vietnamese shrimp, particularly for deeply processed products with sustainability certifications, transparency, and traceability.

Positive results were also recorded in the CPTPP bloc, with exports in August exceeding USD 130 million, up 40% compared to the same period. In the first eight months, Vietnam's shrimp exports to CPTPP markets reached USD 829 million, up 36%. Japan and Australia are main growth drivers for Vietnamese shrimp, supported by stable demand and a focus on high-quality, convenient product lines.

With the current growth momentum, China and the EU are expected to maintain strong performance in the final months of the year, while the U.S. market will require close monitoring of tariff developments. Despite many uncertainties, growth opportunities remain as global consumption demand improves, especially during the year-end peak season.

According to VASEP, in the context of market differentiation, Vietnamese shrimp businesses must adopt more flexible strategies. Instead of concentrating too heavily on a single market, they should proactively tap into CPTPP, EU, and Chinese markets simultaneously to balance risks.

In addition, upgrading products toward value-added lines with ASC, organic, and sustainability certifications will enhance competitiveness in market segments that are less sensitive to price. Close linkage with farming areas to stabilize supply sources and control quality and costs is also crucial.

Experts note that although Indian exporters are seeking to expand into markets such as the EU, Japan, and China, these destinations offer lower profit margins and cannot immediately replace the scale of the U.S. market. The future of India's shrimp industry depends on its ability to diversify markets and shift toward a more value-added, sustainable export model.