China on pace for record grain production

China’s push to become more self-sufficient in grain appears to be paying off as record production and declining imports are forecast for the country in the 2024-25 marketing year, according to a recent report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture. 

The FAS projected China’s grain output to reach 706.5 million tonnes, a 1.6% increase over the previous year driven by expanded acreage and higher yields. All three major grains are expected to achieve production increases, the FAS said.

China’s National Bureau of Statistics forecasts a 2% year-on-year increase in corn production at 294.9 million tonnes, supported by increased planting of high-yield varieties. However, the FAS said industry estimates range from 280 million to 293 million tonnes.

“Post believes the effective production of corn is lower than the official number due to several industry reports of severe toxin issues in the new crop,” the FAS said.

Record low corn-prices in late 2024 encouraged corn use in China’s domestic feed and industrial sectors. The FAS noted that feed and residual use of grains is forecast to grow modestly to 287.2 million tonnes, “reflecting increased corn use in feed formulations due to lower prices. The shift is reducing reliance on wheat and rice as feed ingredients.”

Wheat production is estimated to increase by 2.6% year on year to 140.1 million tonnes due to improved yields from last year’s low base, the agency said.

“Industry reported wheat quality was good, but supplies of good-quality, high-protein wheat were tight and that there were higher toxins in wheat from south Henan and north Hubei.

China, which is the world’s largest wheat and rice producer, is expected to slightly increase its rice output in 2024-25 to 145.3 million tonnes.

From a grain trade perspective, the most noteworthy development is a projected 40% decrease in corn imports and a 37% decrease in wheat intake.

The FAS projects a “strategic reduction in corn imports (from 23.4 million) to 14 million tonnes as part of government policies to protect domestic farmers coupled with efforts to diversify corn suppliers, which is resulting in more corn coming from South American origins.”

The FAS said the steep decline in imported wheat is due to strong domestic production and weak demand, “although trade with Argentina is expanding.”