Mexican tomato exports experienced their steepest drop in the first semester since 2012

This is the steepest drop in the first half of the year since 2012, when exports declined by 20.1% over the same period of the previous year. In terms of value, the $1.421 billion is the lowest amount since the $1.328 billion achieved in the January-June 2022 period.

This decline is connected to the United States' decision last July to end the 2019 Tomato Suspension Agreement, which imposed a 17.09% anti-dumping duty on Mexican tomato imports. Nonetheless, uncertainty had already arisen in April when the U.S. Department of Commerce announced its plan to withdraw from the agreement and issue an anti-dumping order on fresh tomato imports from Mexico.

The Agricultural Market Advisory Group (AMAG) estimates that the new regulations could cause a 25% decrease in tomato exports by the end of the year, potentially affecting up to 100,000 jobs in the sector. The investigation into tomato exports from Mexico to the United States began in 1996 over alleged unfair trade practices. Over the years, several suspension agreements were established in 1996, 2002, 2008, and 2013; the most recent was signed on September 19, 2019.

In 2024, a five-year review found that dumping was likely to continue with margins of up to 30.48%. The withdrawal from the agreement was notified on 14 April 2025. In response, the Ministries of Economy and Agriculture set minimum export prices for tomatoes, raising concerns among domestic producers about the potential implicit recognition of dumping practices.

The GCMA emphasizes that to progress toward a new agreement with the United States, it is essential to include acceptable verification methods, such as third-party audits or international certifications, and to present transparent economic analyses of costs and margins.

In the first half of this year, Mexico's agri-food exports totaled $ 27.352 billion, 4.4% less than in the same period in 2024. Despite the decrease, the agri-food balance remained in surplus at $5.155 billion. However, this was 19.8% less than in the same period in 2024. During this period, beer led agri-food exports with a value of $3.39 billion, followed by avocado with $2.235 billion. Tomatoes ranked as the sixth export product with shipments of $1.421 billion.

"This positive balance was achieved despite the fall in foreign sales of six of the eight main export products, with declines ranging from 1% to 29% percent," the GCMA said