Vietnam's coffee sector concludes the crop season with new records

According to the General Department of Customs, Vietnam's coffee exports in September have dropped to the lowest levels in recent months, with an appoximate volume of 51 thousand tons and value of 169 million USD. This marks a decrease of 48.2% in volume and 28.2% in value compared to the same period in 2022.

During the third quarter of 2023, Vietnam's coffee exports reached 246 thousand tons at a value of 739 million USD. This marks a decrease of 24.9% in volume and 4.1% in value compared to the same period in 2022. This decline has been attributed to a reduction in the supply of coffee.

Consequently, at the conclusion of the 2022-2023 coffee crop season between October 2022 and September 2023, Vietnam's coffee exports reached 1.66 million tons, which is equivalent to over 27.7 million bags. This marks a decrease of 4.5% compared to that of the 2021-2022 crop season. However, the export revenue for coffee has increased by 3.4%, reaching the highest recorded level of 4.08 billion USD due to the significantly higher prices.

During the 2022-2023 crop season, the average export price of Vietnam's coffee was estimated at 2,451 USD per ton, which is an increase of 8.2% increase compared to that of the previous crop season. Notably, the price of Vietnamese coffee exports increased for the seventh consecutive month in September, reaching the highest recorded level of 3,310 USD per ton. This marks an increase of 8.4% compared to the the previous month and an increase of 36% (equivalent to 878 USD per ton) compared to the same period in 2022.

Subsequently, the Vietnam's coffee sector considers the 2022-2023 crop season to be the "year of high prices amid low yields." According to the Vietnam Coffee Cocoa Association (VICOFA), the estimated coffee production for the last crop season ranges from 1.5 to 1.6 million tons. Accordingly, this figure represents a decrease of 10 to 15% compared to the 2021-2022 crop season due to unfavorable weather conditions and the shift towards fruit trees production.

According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Vietnam's coffee production in the 2022-2023 crop season has decreased by 6% compared to the previous season, reaching 29.7 million bags at 60 kilograms per bag. USDA assessed that Vietnam, the world's largest robusta coffee producer, has experienced its lowest harvest in four years due to the rising labor and fertilizers costs as well as the farmers' shift towards more profitable crops such as avocado, durian, passion fruit, and others.

The contraction in coffee production combined with low reserves is the primary reason for the decrease in coffee exports. On the other hand, global demand for robusta coffee has been on the rise due to the slowing global economic growth and persistently high inflation. This favorable scenario has facilitated Vietnam's robusta coffee export activities in the 2022-2023 season, thereby contributing to the continuous price hikes, resulting in the highest price levels within the last thirty years.

For the domestic market, the price of locally processed robusta coffee in the Central Highlands has increased by 40 to 50% during the 2022-2023 season, peaking at over 68,000 VND per kilogram on September 19 and slightly decreasing towards the end of the month.

The record-high and maintained coffee prices in the third quarter have encouraged coffee farmers and export businesses. However, Vietnam's coffee supply is currently facing a scarcity despite the initiation of the 2023-2024 crop season. Mr. Phan Minh Thong, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phuc Sinh Coffee Joint Stock Company in Ben Cat town, Binh Duong province, believes that the coffee industry is currently facing the most severe shortage of supply so far. The lost coffee season in 2022-2023 has caused a scarcity of supply and boosted prices, whereas the demand for Vietnamese coffee remains high in various markets.

Regarding the consumer market, the European Union remains as Vietnam's largest coffee export target for the 2022-2023 season, with a volume of 615,000 tons and a value of over 1.4 billion USD. This marks a decrease of 7.1% in volume and 0.3% in value compared to the previous season. The EU accounts for 37% of Vietnam's total coffee export volume.

Conversely, coffee exports to the second-largest consumer market, the United States, have increased by 4.7% to 132,000 tons, accounting for 8% of the total volume. In addition, coffee exports to several other markets have experienced substantial growth, with exports to Algeria increasing by 32.9%, South Korea by 17.1%, Mexico by 81.2%, and notably, Indonesia by 130.2%.