US wheat farmers face bleak crop economics as grain oversupply hits

Profit is growing further out of reach for U.S. wheat farmers and many do not expect to break even in 2024 as ample global supply keeps prices around their lowest in nearly four years at the same time costs including equipment and transport remain high.

The current state of the U.S. wheat market will hit winter wheat farmers in the Great Plains hard. They may lose money despite having what looks to be their best crop for some time after three years of drought sapped yields and forced farmers to abandon wheat.

U.S. wheat prices have plummeted as cheap supplies from the Black Sea and Europe replenished global stocks of the staple grain, and as plentiful corn harvests worldwide pressure the entire commodity grains complex. U.S. winter wheat will be the first crop to be harvested in a year when U.S. farm income is expected to plummet, signaling tough times ahead for rural America.

Chris Tanner, a farmer in the top wheat growing state of Kansas, said he would need to harvest 10 bushels more per acre than last year in order to break even.

"It's hard to describe how that makes me feel without seeming like an angry farmer with a pitchfork," Tanner said. "It makes me feel like I'm working in vain to raise a superior product."

A Kansas State University analysis showed Kansas farmers would need a yield of roughly 60 bushels, opens new tab per acre at a price of $6.26 per bushel to break even, well above cash prices in the state that have ranged between $5 and $5.80 as well as July futures prices . Winter wheat is harvested in June and July in the Great Plains.

The London-based International Grains Council forecasts a record global grain crop in the 2024-2025 marketing season, reinforcing concerns about a global glut.

While the size of the U.S. winter wheat crop will become clearer in coming weeks, particularly during an annual wheat tour in May, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Monday that 55% of the crop is in good-to-excellent condition, the highest for this time of year since 2020.