The USD 62 billion agriculture export forecast and the unknown

The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) reported USD 46.28 billion in agricultural exports in the first nine months of 2024, up 21% from the previous year. The agriculture sector had a trade surplus of USD 13.9 billion, up 71.2% from 2023, accounting for 66.8% of the economic surplus.

In the first nine months, agricultural exports rose 27.7% to USD 24.85 billion, forestry products 20.3%, fisheries 9.5%, and livestock 3.8%.

Coffee, rice, cashews, fruits and vegetables, shrimp, pangasius fish, and pepper contributed to this achievement. Coffee exports rose 39.6% despite a 10.5% volume decline.

Many key crops have enjoyed record-high export prices and quantity growth. Coffee jumped 56% to USD 3,897 per ton, pepper 49.2% to USD 4,941, rubber 19%, and rice 13.1%.

Experts say rising export prices have increased export turnover, the industry's trade surplus, and domestic agriculture prices, giving farmers more profit.

Export development has also boosted support for regions switching from agricultural output to an agricultural economy.

Unknown for the economic 'pillar'

Deputy Minister of MARD Phung Duc Tien predicted a record USD 60-61 billion in agricultural exports in 2024 if the present development rate continues.

Mr. Tien warned that agriculture has good circumstances but faces major challenges, particularly from Tropical Storm No. 3.

Livestock and seafood were severely impacted by this typhoon and floods, which cost over 30.8 trillion VND.

The pangasius fish business confronts growing fuel, material, and feed prices. Meanwhile, economic downturns have lowered consumer demand in many export countries, lowering raw pangasius prices and causing breeding and commercial farming problems.

Additionally, seafood manufacturing input materials are expensive. High logistical costs also affect output, especially when consuming demand stagnates and the manufacturing scale shrinks.

The EU's IUU inspection and U.S. shrimp anti-subsidy duties will also affect seafood exports in the fourth quarter.

Many wood processing and export facilities in northern mountainous regions need investment to restore and recover from Typhoon Yagi forest damage.

Shipping rate variations have also hampered firms. Shipping expenses have risen, raising raw wood prices and the product's price. Foreign importers have set or sought price cuts.

Vietnam's overall export value was USD 315.91 billion on October 15, up 15.3% (or USD 41.89 billion) from 2023.

Total export value dropped 18.1% (or USD 3.56 billion) to USD 16.15 billion in the first half of October from the second half of September. In early October, exports of computers and electronic components fell to USD 1.22 billion (32.4%), and phones and components to USD 644 million (23.9%).

Only cassava and cassava products increased in early October among Vietnam's eight major agricultural exports, according to customs figures. Cassava exports rose 14.1% to USD 30.3 million in early October.

Early October saw a decrease in the other seven primary export categories, which are usually more valued than cassava. Seafood exports dropped 12% to USD 465.5 million from late September. Fruit and vegetable exports fell 35% to USD 296 million.

Storm No. 3 harmed agriculture and exports, as these numbers show. With little over two months remaining in 2024, post-storm recovery and weather will determine if exports reach $60 billion.

Much work remained, thus Deputy Minister Phung Duc Tien stressed the need to encourage production. Improve effective models in unaffected areas from North Central to the Mekong Delta, boost anti-smuggling measures to preserve and promote growth, and improve lobster import regulations.

To sustain domestic production, we must fight smuggling, restrict imports, and boost exports. Mr. Tien emphasized approaching the Halal market and expanding into the prospective 2.2 billion consumer market.