Rice prices forecast to fall in 2025 marketing year

The 2025 planting season was marred by considerable challenges. Farmers in the Midsouth faced historic flooding in April that forced replanting across a significant portion of the Mississippi Delta.

As Delta farmers put planting behind them, the growing season brought extreme heat and prolonged drought. Meanwhile, California experienced a relatively normal year with ideal planting temperatures and no surface water allocation issues.  

Even with California’s improved season, the production setbacks in the Mississippi Delta offset those gains. As a result, U.S. rice production is expected to decline roughly 10 million cwt from 2024 levels, falling to 208.8 million cwt in 2025.

Over the past decade, production has fluctuated between 160 and 230 million cwt, with acreage shifting between 2 million to 3 million acres. Peaks in 2016, 2018 and 2020 reflect the typical crop rotation across the Midsouth. But with high input costs and weaker rice prices, 2022 marked a contraction in production at just 160 million cwt.

Recovered production

Production has since recovered, due in part to more favorable returns for a rice crop compared with other Midsouth commodities such as corn or cotton.  

The September 2025 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report forecasts a 35% year-over-year increase in all rice-class beginning stocks. This increase in beginning stocks is almost entirely driven by the 93% year-over-year increase for long grain, the result of record yields across the South in 2024, with Arkansas averaging 169.8 bushels per acre.

Related:Fall field prep boosts early rice planting success

On the other hand, medium grain is forecast to fall by 27.5%. The current outlook is for a slight rise in overall exports and a relatively minor decrease (~0.9%) in stocks ending up to 2024-25. Ending stocks are currently forecast at 53.4 million cwt, compared with 2024-25, when stocks sat at 53.9 million cwt.

Price competitiveness

USDA anticipates long-grain rice exports will reach 64 million cwt, a level that hinges on maintaining price competitiveness in global markets. As a result, farm prices for long-grain rice are forecast to decline to $12.00 per cwt, while the prices for Southern medium- and short-grain rice are forecast at $12.50 per cwt.

These expectations represent a severe decline from the 2024-25 marketing year, with long-grain, and Southern medium- and short-grain prices falling 14% and 18%, respectively.

It’s worth noting that the effective reference price has increased from $14.00 per cwt to $16.90 per cwt for the 2025-26 marketing year because of the recently signed One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Figure 2 highlights this change, showing that current forecasts indicate a possible Price Loss Coverage payment under the new effective reference price. 

However, global rice prices have trended downward throughout 2025, primarily due to weaker global demand, India resuming rice exports, much lower import demand from Indonesia and a temporary ban on rice imports in the Philippines, which is expected to be lifted in November.

U.S. long-grain rice is currently priced around $585 per ton, which represents the most expensive rice on the world market. In contrast, India, Pakistan and Thailand are all competing for the cheapest rice on the market, priced at around $360 per ton.

The broad decline in the world rice price has been from India’s decision to lift its rice export ban in September 2024. Nearly a year later, Indian exports continue to exert downward pressure on international markets.