Pepper prices on 11/17/2023: Harsh climate threatens output

Pepper prices on 11/17 in the world

Around the world, the pepper market on November 17 decreased in Indonesia but remained unchanged in other countries. 

Accordingly, the price of Lampung black pepper in Indonesia decreased by 0.58%; about $ 4,104/ton. The price of this country's Muntok white pepper decreased by 0.6%, to $ 6,218/ton.

Malaysia's Kuching ASTA black pepper price remained stable at $ 4,900/ton; This country's ASTA white pepper price is still at $ 7,300/ton.

For the Brazilian market, the price of ASTA 570 black pepper remained at $ 3,100/ton.

In Vietnam, export prices of 500 and 550 g/l black pepper are at $ 3,500 and $ 3,600/ton, respectively. The export price of white pepper remained at $ 5,100/ton.

World pepper prices are currently decreasing slightly in Indonesia and moving sideways in other markets.

It is forecasted that in the fourth quarter of 2023, the global market will not really prosper. Pepper consumption demand in major economies such as the EU, US, China,... will remain low. Entering 2024, the world pepper market is likely to recover. 

According to the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association (VPSA), businesses all estimate that pepper crop output in 2024 will decrease by about 10-15%, estimated at 160,000-165,000 thousand tons. 

Thus, world pepper prices on 11/17/2023 decreased slightly in Indonesia compared to yesterday.

Pepper prices on 11/17 in the country

Domestically, the pepper market on November 17 remained stable compared to yesterday.

Specifically, Dak Lak and Dak Nong continue to purchase pepper at VND 68,500/kg;

In Gia Lai, pepper prices are still trading at VND 67,500/kg;

In Dong Nai, traders still buy at VND 67,500/kg;

The latest pepper price in Ba Ria - Vung Tau remains around VND 70,500/kg;

Meanwhile, Binh Phuoc increased slightly by VND 500, trading around VND 70,000/kg. 

Domestic pepper prices today saw a slight increase in Binh Phuoc, while other localities continue to move sideways. Currently, the highest domestic pepper purchasing price is VND 70,500/kg. 

The 2024 pepper crop will start around the Lunar New Year in Dak Nong-the most important region for Vietnamese pepper currently.

The flood situation in July 2023 is estimated to affect the upcoming pepper harvest. However, the prediction of the El Nino phenomenon occurring at the end of the new year is causing concern for new crop pepper output. 

In key pepper-growing areas of our country, according to forecasts of the Hydro-meteorological Forecasting Centre, from November 2023 to January 2024, the dry season will begin. It is forecasted that the El Nino phenomenon will occur with a probability of about 85-95%. Total rainfall is 5 to 15% lower than the average for many years, and river and stream flow is 8 to 40.5% lower than the average for many years.

From February to April 2024, it will be the peak of the dry season, the El Nino state will continue to maintain, and the period without rain is likely to last on a large scale. River and stream flows have been lower than average for many years.

The above developments cause concern for the global pepper supply in the context of declining output in other countries. This year, Vietnam has completed its 2023 export of harvest, part of the export is taken from imports as well as inventory from the previous year. 

It is expected that in the last 2 months of the year, Vietnam will export more than 30,000 tons of pepper, bringing the total export volume for the whole year 2023 to an estimated 260,000 tons. The amount of inventory transferred from 2023 to 2024 will be at the lowest in recent years. 

Thus, the domestic pepper price on 11/17/2023 is trading around VND 67,500 - 70,500/kg.

$ 1 = VND 24.045 - Source: Vietcombank