Fertilizer decisions for 2026 crop will be a Balancing Act

Fertilizer prices aren’t at historic highs, but relative to last year’s prices and the current prices for crop commodities, they are elevated. According to data from USDA and analysis by University of Illinois Farmdoc, fertilizer prices in the state are 6% to 20% higher than early fall 2024. Currently, the price trends weigh heavier on farmers who are starting next year’s crop with what could be a lower nutrient baseline.

“We have two realities here. We have the reality of economics, and we have the reality that crops have a core need for nutrients,” says Karl Wyant, Nutrien’s director of agronomy. “While there’s still debate about what exactly the average yield might be, it’s going to be big nonetheless, so we’re going to have a lot of nutrients leaving the field.”

Wyant says therein lies the balance for farmers — keep soils productive while considering the cost to do so. His best advice — root your decision in data.

“Think about your fields like an accountant would. Take stock of what nutrients are in the field, at what levels, which allows you to work with an agronomist or a crop adviser and start triaging things — what do you absolutely have to invest in nutrient and fertilizer-wise to get through 2026,” he says.

Another facet of return on investment that will be top of mind for farmers is nutrient use efficiency.

“We have a real disparity between crop prices and fertilizer prices. One of the most important things a farmer can do is pick the most efficient fertilizer they can find,” says Ron Restum, chief commercial officer for Ostara.

While fertilizer decisions carry more weight in the year ahead, Wyant says the only mistake he’s encouraging farmers to avoid is to not question their fertility program.

“It’s like meeting with your financial adviser. There’s always room to tweak things according to financials, yield goals, dynamic soil conditions and more,” he says.

Fertilizer pricing strategies to manage risk, per University of Illinois Farmdoc, include: Forward purchases; Volume discounts; Bundling fertilizer with other products/services; Timing adjustments; and Collect prices from multiple sources.