China’s phosphate export restrictions could drive up fertilizer prices for U.S. farmers

Chinese fertilizer industry groups are urging major producers to suspend exports of phosphate-based farm nutrients, in a move to ensure adequate domestic supply and cool prices ahead of spring planting.

China Agricultural Means of Production Association and China Phosphate & Compound Fertilizer Industry Association summoned major phosphate producers and traders for a meeting and urged them to suspend outbound shipments until August, state media reported late Thursday. 

The Asian nation once dominated the global phosphate fertilizer market. But it has been restricting exports since 2021 to prioritize domestic supply by keeping outbound shipments tightly restricted and subject to policy controls. The latest move, which could amount to a de facto ban, will mark a further tightening of Beijing’s controls and could push up global phosphate prices that have only just come down from multi-year highs.

Chinese industry groups typically work closely with government agencies, relaying policy priorities and effectively performing some quasi-regulatory roles. The meeting on Thursday was also held under the direction of the National Development and Reform Commission, the country’s state planner. 

Sharp price swings in some regions have disrupted stockpiling of phosphate fertilizers ahead of spring planting, even though overall supply is adequate, the report said, citing talks at the meeting. Higher costs and seasonal demand have fueled the volatility, prompting calls for stronger measures to stabilize production and prices. Producers have also been urged to keep operating at high capacity levels and avoid output cuts.

Sufficient phosphate fertilizer supply and stable prices are essential for motivating farmers to increase planting and output. China has refocused on grain security in recent years, after the Covid-19 pandemic and intensified geopolitical tensions disrupted the global agriculture supply chain. It’s a top priority that has now gained even more prominence on the central leadership’s policy agenda.