Brazil’s wheat crop plagued by quality concerns

Although yields are estimated to be higher, the quality of Brazil’s 2023-24 wheat crop is expected to be below typical standards, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

The low quality of some segments of the Brazilian harvest has driven up exports, as the domestic market prefers higher-quality grains for processing, the FAS said. By October, Brazil had exported 2.5 million tonnes of wheat, a 20% increase compared to the same month in 2023. Total wheat exports for 2023-24 are forecast to be 5% higher than the previous year at 2.81 million tonnes.

At the same time, wheat imports are seen increasing by 16% as millers look to foreign suppliers to make up for the decrease in quality in the domestic wheat crop.

Due to weather issues, Brazil’s 2023-24 wheat output declined by 23% year on year to 8.1 million tonnes, the FAS said.

“Brazil experienced a substantial decline in the domestic wheat supply in 2023, and is not expected to recover this year, particularly due to a significant reduction in (the state of) Panará,” the FAS said.

The FAS forecasts wheat output in 2024-25 as virtually unchanged from the previous year at 8.2 million tonnes but down 14% from the previous estimate. However, it would still be the second largest wheat harvest ever in Brazil.

Planted area is projected to fall by nearly 8% from the previous estimate to 3 million hectares as the FAS noted that “wheat prices in Brazil are experiencing a downward trend, influenced by a decline in international markets and the broader global economic situation.” This has led producers to exercise more caution regarding their planting decisions. 

Wheat exports and imports for 2024-25 are also forecast to decline slightly to 2.5 million tonnes and 6 million tonnes, respectively.