Weather takes toll on EU grain crops

In its fourth forecast for the 2024 crop, COCERAL projected total grain output at 280.3 million tonnes, which would be a 5% decrease from the previous forecast of 296 million and down from 294.2 million in 2023.

“Rain and a lack of sunshine during the spring have significantly impacted winter crop production in western Europe, most of all France and Germany,” COCERAL said in its Sept. 20 report. “This has added to lower plantings, which had resulted from overly wet conditions during the fall of 2023. Hot and dry weather during pollination have affected spring crop yields in southeastern Europe.”

Soft wheat production (excluding durum) is now pegged at 126 million tonnes, compared to 134.5 million in the June forecast and down from 140.3 million last year.

Most notably, France, the EU’s top producer and exporter of soft wheat, has just harvested what is expected to be its worst wheat crop in 40 years, down by nearly 25% compared to the previous year.

Barley production in the EU-27+UK also was revised lower from 59.9 million tonnes to 57.6 million, but that total would still be higher than the 54.8 million tonnes harvested in 2023, COCERAL said.

The corn crop now is projected at 60.3 million tonnes, down from 64.8 million forecast in June and down from last year’s output of 64.6 million tonnes.

The EU-27+UK rapeseed crop is forecast at 18.1 million tonnes, down from 19.4 million in the previous forecast and below the 2023 total of 21.3 million tonnes.