Vietnam's coffee exports continuously exceed the 4 billion USD mark

In 2023, Vietnam's coffee exports exceeded the 4 billion USD mark for the second consecutive time and reached a record level of 4.24 billion USD. In the first 9 months of this year, Vietnam's coffee exports continued to exceed the 4 billion USD mark and broke the record of 2023, with a turnover of 4.37 billion USD (up 40% compared to the same period last year). This is also the first time Vietnam's coffee export turnover has exceeded the 4 billion USD mark after just 3 quarters.

The main reason that helped coffee exports soon surpass the 4 billion USD mark and set a new record this year is the high increase in coffee export prices. According to the Agency of Foreign Trade (Ministry of Industry and Trade), in the first 9 months of 2024, Vietnam's average coffee export price is estimated to reach 3,897 USD/ton, up 56% over the same period last year. Particularly in September, the average coffee export price was 5,469 USD/ton, an increase of 65% compared to September 2023.

Thanks to a sharp increase in export prices, coffee export turnover still set a new record in the context of decreased export volume due to reduced Robusta coffee output. In the first 9 months of this year, the amount of coffee exported reached only 1.12 million tons, down 11% compared to the same period in 2023. Of which, exports in September dropped to the lowest level since the beginning of the year, with only 65,000 tons.

The output of Robusta coffee (Vietnam's main exported coffee type) has decreased, clearly reflected in the structure of exported coffee types. In the first 8 months of this year, while Arabica coffee exports increased by 59% in volume, Robusta coffee exports decreased by 17% (reaching 892,000 tons). Therefore, in the structure of coffee exports in the first 8 months of the year, the market share of Robusta coffee decreased slightly compared to the same period in 2023, while the proportion of Arabica coffee increased.

In addition to reduced output, another reason why the amount of Robusta coffee exported has decreased significantly this year is the increasing domestic demand for coffee. Mr. Do Ha Nam, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association, said that businesses are promoting investment in instant coffee processing factories in Vietnam, so the amount of Robusta coffee purchased for processing is increasing, leading to a decrease in the amount of green coffee for export. The emergence of a series of coffee business chains in Vietnam also contributes significantly to increasing the amount of coffee consumed in the domestic market.

At this time, Vietnam has entered the 2024–2025 coffee crop year (from October 2024 to September 2025). In the early days of October, coffee prices in the Central Highlands are tending to decline compared to the end of September.

According to some coffee market analysts, the main reason for the decrease in coffee prices in the first days of October is that the European Commission (EC) has just proposed to postpone for one year the implementation of the regulation on prohibiting the import of goods related to deforestation (EUDR). In recent months, because of concerns that many coffee shipments do not meet the EUDR, EU importers have accelerated coffee purchases from producing countries before this regulation takes effect (January 1, 2025), causing coffee prices to increase sharply. Therefore, postponing the implementation of the EUDR will reduce the pressure on coffee deliveries to the EU in November, leading to a decrease in coffee prices on trading floors and affecting coffee prices in major producing countries, including Vietnam.

Although it has decreased compared to the end of September, the current coffee price is still at a high level, nearly 120,000 VND/kg. Compared to early October 2023, current coffee prices in the Central Highlands are nearly two times higher. Thus, this is the first coffee crop year in Vietnam when the price at the beginning of the crop is more than 100,000 VND/kg. With forecasts that coffee output will continue to decrease in the 2024–2025 crop year, it is likely that Vietnamese coffee prices will continue to remain high throughout this crop year.

With export results achieved in 9 months, Vietnam's coffee exports this year are facing the opportunity to reach the 5 billion USD mark for the first time.