Vietnamese coffee exports forecast to reach 6 billion USD

According to the Vietnam General Department of Customs, coffee exports in January 2025 totaled approximately 140,000 tons, generating 763 million USD. down 41.1% in volume but increased by 5% in value compared to the same period in 2024.

The average export price of coffee in January 2025 is estimated at 5,450 USD per ton, marking a sharp increase of 78.5% from the previous year. Strong global demand has driven up domestic coffee prices since early 2025, with prices currently exceeding 130,000 VND/kg and nearing the historic high of 134,000 VND/kg recorded on April 29, 2024.

Data from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) indicates that Vietnam exported over 150,000 tons of coffee in January 2025, generating nearly 800 million USD in revenue. Of this total, raw coffee bean exports accounted for approximately 137,000 tons, earning nearly 700 million USD – representing a 38.2% decline in volume but an 8.8% increase in value compared to the same period in 2024.

Notably, processed coffee exports reached around 17,000 tons, with revenues of 104 million USD. This continues the strong performance of 2024, when Vietnam exported nearly 1.35 million tons of coffee and achieved a record-high revenue of 5.62 billion USD.

In terms of market share, in 2024, Germany, Italy, and Spain remained Vietnam’s top three coffee importers, accounting for 10.7%, 8.2%, and 7.9% of total exports respectively. Coffee exports saw growth across all 15 of Vietnam’s largest markets, with the most significant increases recorded in Malaysia (doubled) and the Netherlands (up 94%).

For many consecutive years, Vietnam has maintained its position as the world’s leading supplier of Robusta coffee. However, with prices at historic highs, many exporters may struggle with supply shortages and the fulfillment of previously signed futures contracts.

Additionally, the rapid rise in coffee prices has put pressure on suppliers, as contracts signed at lower prices may become difficult for producers to fulfill, posing challenges to order completion.

Looking ahead to 2025, the Agency of Foreign Trade (Ministry of Industry and Trade) forecasts that Vietnam’s coffee exports will continue to expand as global demand rises, while Brazil – the world’s top coffee exporter – is expected to see a decline in output.

According to Safras & Mercado, Brazil’s total coffee production for the 2025 - 2026 crop year is projected to reach 62.45 million bags, marking a 5% decline from the previous season. Arabica production is expected to drop sharply by 15% to 38.25 million bags, while Robusta output is estimated at 24.1 million bags. Industry organizations such as Volcafe, Expana, and Hedgepoint have also revised their forecasts downward, particularly for Arabica coffee.

One key factor behind this decline is unfavorable weather in Brazil’s main Arabica-growing regions. The country’s meteorological agency reported that rainfall in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest Arabica-producing state, was just 43.2mm last week, 17% below the historical average.

In contrast to Brazil, Vietnam’s coffee exports are expected to increase by approximately 1.8 million bags in 2025, reaching 24.4 million bags, supported by improved supply conditions. Meanwhile, global coffee consumption is projected to rise by about 5.1 million bags, reaching 168.1 million bags in 2025. The strongest growth is anticipated in key markets such as the European Union (EU), the United States, and China.

The EU remains the world’s largest coffee consumer, with demand expected to surpass 42 million bags in the 2024-2025 crop year – an increase of more than 2.4 million bags compared to the previous season.

European coffee import demand is likely to continue rising amid concerns over the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). As the new standards take effect, some countries may struggle to secure enough compliant coffee in the short term, as suppliers work to meet the stringent requirements.

Meanwhile, China’s coffee consumption has surged nearly 150% over the past decade and is forecast to reach 6.3 million bags in the 2024 - 2025 season. With domestic production hovering around 2 million bags, the country will need to ramp up imports to meet rising demand.

For the EU market, the Vietnam Trade Office in Sweden advises businesses to establish a robust traceability system to ensure compliance with the EUDR, ensuring that products do not contribute to deforestation, adhering to the laws of the producing country, and providing detailed geographic information on coffee-growing regions.

Exporting enterprises should prepare in advance and comprehensively to meet EUDR requirements. This preparation will not only help avoid trade disruptions but also enhance credibility with Nordic customers. Additionally, businesses are advised to estimate the costs of EUDR compliance in detail, including plans to support local communities.

Mr. Duong Duc Quang, Deputy General Director of the Vietnam Commodity Exchange, noted that Vietnam’s coffee supply is expected to gradually increase, at least through the end of the first quarter of 2025. “The continued rise in coffee prices since the end of 2024 is primarily due to concerns about supply shortages in the market,” Mr. Quang commented.

Mr. Phan Minh Thong, General Director of Phuc Sinh Joint Stock Company, foresees a promising outlook for coffee exports in 2025. He believes that global coffee buyers will turn to Vietnam and Indonesia for their coffee supplies. He predicts that the export value of Vietnamese coffee will surpass the 6 billion USD mark and could even reach 7 billion USD if coffee prices follow the upward trend seen in 2024.

In agreement, Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, emphasized that during the 2024 - 2025 crop year, coffee growers will continue to have opportunities to expand export markets. However, for sustainable export growth, he recommended that businesses avoid trading from a distance and instead build strong connections with farmers to foster high-quality coffee production for long-term development. He also encouraged businesses to promote Robusta coffee, which offers a quality alternative at a more affordable price.

Vietnam's coffee exports set continous records

The year 2024 marks a milestone for the coffee industry, as it is the first year Vietnamese coffee prices have reached the highest level globally. Remarkably, the export price of Robusta coffee has even surpassed that of Arabica coffee, a rare occurrence.

The growth of coffee exports in January 2025 contrasts with the broader trend in agricultural exports for the same period. Specifically, total export turnover for the month reached 5.08 billion USD, down 4.9% compared to January 2024.