USDA crop progress: Soybean quality tilts lower

Was this week’s report worth the extra wait? Arguably not – there weren’t many significant surprises that will move the needle on grain prices very much in either direction. Corn quality held steady, with soybean quality facing a one-point dip. The biggest shocker was spring wheat conditions, which suffered another four-point drop from a week ago.

Corn quality remained largely steady, with 64% rated in good-to-excellent condition through Sunday, mirroring analyst expectations. However, 27% of the crop is rated fair (down a point from last week), with the remaining 9% rated poor or very poor (up a point from last week). State-by-state variability is still considerable, ranging from Ohio (85% rated G/E) down to South Dakota (24% rated G/E).

Physiologically, 10% of the crop has reached the silking stage, up from 4% a week ago and slightly ahead of 2020’s pace of 9% but down from the prior five-year average of 14%.

Soybean quality dropped a point, with 59% of the crop now rated in good-to-excellent condition. Analysts were expecting USDA to leave ratings unchanged, in contrast. Another 30% of the crop is rated fair (down a point from last week), with the remaining 11% rated poor or very poor (up two points from last week).

Physiologically, 29% of the crop is blooming, up from the prior weeks’ mark of 14% and moving along moderately faster than the prior five-year average of 24%. And 3% is setting pods, which is identical to the prior five-year average.

Winter wheat also dropped a point lower, with 47% rated in good-to-excellent condition. Analysts were expecting USDA to leave quality ratings unchanged. Another 30% is rated fair (down a point from a week ago), with the remaining 23% rated poor or very poor (up two points from last week).

Harvest continues to see some forward momentum, moving from 33% completion a week ago up to 45% through Sunday. That’s a more sluggish pace than 54% in 2020 and the prior five-year average of 53%. Three of the top 18 production states – Michigan, Montana and Washington – haven’t made any measurable harvest progress yet, according to USDA.

Analysts expected to see another one-point drop for spring wheat ratings, but USDA trimmed ratings four points lower, with just 16% of the crop now rated in good-to-excellent condition. Another 34% is rated fair (down seven points from last week), with the remaining 40% rated poor or very poor (up 11 points from last week).

Physiologically, 69% of the crop is headed, up from 48% a week ago and faster than both 2020’s pace of 59% and the prior five-year average of 62%.