Soybean output seen rising by 7%

While corn and wheat production are forecast to remain relatively flat in the 2024-25 marketing year, global soybean output is seen increasing by 7% from the previous year, according to the International Grains Council’s (IGC) October Grain Market Report.

The report, released on Oct. 17, pegs soybean production at a record 421 million tonnes, up from 395 million in 2023-24, as several of the world’s biggest producers are expecting bumper crops.

The IGC also projected increases in soybean consumption and trade.

“With growing demand from feed, food and industrial sectors set to sustain an uptrend in processing, world utilization is seen advancing 5%, with aggregate inventories also reaching a high,” the IGC said. “Trade is anticipated to edge up to a peak of 179 million tonnes, including another season of above-average deliveries to China.”

Despite an expected modest decline in corn production, total grains production, which includes wheat and coarse grains, is seen climbing slightly to a record 2.315 billion tonnes, the Council said.

Although revised slightly higher from the previous forecast, total grains ending stocks are projected at a 10-year low of 584 million tonnes, according to the IGC.

“The fall stems from a 7-million-tonne reduction in corn and a 6-million-tonne drop in wheat inventories, partially offset by a 1-million-tonne gain in other coarse grains,” the IGC said.

Total grains trade is seen falling to 419 million tonnes, the lowest level since the 2020-21 season, when 396 million tonnes were shipped, the IGC said.

The IGC projects record-setting rice production of 531 million tonnes in 2024-25, “chiefly on gains from leading exporters.”

Rice exports also are expected to reach a new peak of 56 million.

“World import demand could reach a high in 2025 on stronger African demand, with Indian dispatches potentially moving above 20 million tonnes owing to looser restrictions on non-basmati white rice trade,” the Council said.

With softer rice and soybean export quotations more than compensating for firm grain prices, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index, which tracks prices for wheat, corn, barley, rice and soybeans, fell by 1% from the September report. The price index is 13% lower than it was a year ago this month.