Rice exports projected to surpass 7.5 million tons

On March 27, the Viet Nam Food Association (VFA) held its conference to review operations in 2025 and outline directions for 2026. According to the VFA, Viet Nam’s rice exports in 2025 reached 8.063 million tons, down nearly 11% from 2024. This marked the lowest level in the 2023–2025 period but remained significantly higher than the pre-2022 period, thereby continuing to affirm Viet Nam's position among the world's leading rice-exporting countries.

In 2025, Viet Nam's rice export market structure saw a marked shift across regions, with sharp declines in several traditional markets, while African markets and China recorded significant growth.

The Philippines remained Viet Nam's largest rice importer, with 3.21 million tons worth USD 1.57 billion, accounting for 40% of total export volume. However, compared to 2024, rice exports to this market dropped sharply. The main reason was the Philippines' adjustment of import management policies and implementation of domestic rice price stabilization measures, including a temporary suspension of imports from September to December, which reduced import demand.

Ivory Coast was the second-largest importer, reaching 1.06 million tons valued at USD 478 million, accounting for 13% of total exports, up 119% in volume and 67% in value compared to 2024. Ghana followed with 919,000 tons worth USD 514 million, accounting for 11%, up 50% in volume and 21% in value. These results highlight the growing importance of the African region in Viet Nam's rice exports.

Exports to China recovered strongly, reaching 747,000 tons worth USD 374 million, accounting for 9.27% of total export volume, up 162% in volume and 123% in value compared to 2024.

In general, Viet Nam's rice export markets in 2025 showed a trend toward diversification, with strong growth in African markets and a recovery in China, while several traditional markets in Southeast Asia declined sharply. This shift helped maintain the scale of Viet Nam's rice exports.

According to the VFA, Viet Nam's rice supply-demand balance is expected to remain secure in 2026. Domestic rice production will stay stable, with output estimated at around 43–44 million tons that meet needs for domestic consumption, reserves, and processing. After accounting for domestic consumption, seed use, processing, and reserves, the remaining commercial rice volume will still be adequate for export.

The VFA noted that rice exports in 2026 may be affected by fluctuations in international markets, particularly by adjustments to import policies in major markets and by intensifying competition among exporting countries. Rice exports in 2026 are projected to reach around 7.5–7.7 million tons, with export turnover possibly declining slightly due to lower global rice prices.

To maintain export markets in 2026, the VFA recommended that the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment continue to effectively implement policies encouraging and supporting the development of raw material areas, strengthen linkages in rice production and consumption, enhance the organizational capacity of cooperatives, and address obstacles in mechanisms and policies related to rice production and consumption.

Earlier information on crop variety structure (immediately after sowing schedules in each growing area) is needed to help stakeholders balance supply and demand and promote trade. The Ministry should reassess the role of common white rice varieties to provide appropriate cultivation guidance, meeting diverse market demands.

Speaking at the conference, Mr. Nguyen Anh Son, Director General of the Agency of Foreign Trade under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, stated that in the context of global food trade affected by numerous adverse and unpredictable factors stemming from complex geopolitical developments, the VFA needs to strengthen monitoring and closely track developments in the global rice market.

The association should regularly update and analyze information on supply and demand, import demand, export developments, and price movements in international markets and promptly provide accurate and comprehensive information to state management agencies and the business community to support regulatory work and production and business activities.

A representative of the National Authority for Agro-Forestry-Fishery Quality, Processing, and Market Development under the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment proposed that the VFA promote value chain linkages among enterprises, cooperatives, and farmers; actively participate in the implementation of the "Sustainable Development of One Million Hectares of High-Quality, Low-Emission Rice" project; and encourage members to invest in deep processing and improve product quality to meet international standards.

The VFA should also strengthen its advisory role and coordination with the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment and management agencies in developing and completing mechanisms and policies while accelerating digital transformation, traceability, and transparency in Viet Nam's rice supply chain.