Kansas 2021 wheat yields seen at record high, but protein may dip-tour

but warned that a bumper harvest could mean reduced grain protein content.

Kansas wheat yield potential was estimated at a tour-record 58.1 bushels per acre (bpa) by crop scouts on the annual Wheat Quality Council tour, above the five-year tour average of 43.1 bpa and the U.S. Agriculture Department's Kansas estimate of 48.0 bpa. The Wheat Quality Council did not hold a tour in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic.

If realized, the yield would be the highest on record for Kansas, topping the previous mark of 57.0 bpa set in 2016, based on USDA data.

Chicago Board of Trade hard red winter wheat futures turned lower on the news, with July futures ending down 8-3/4 cents at $6.25 a bushel.

The Kansas crop was hit this season by dry weather and cold snaps that raised concerns about freeze damage, but well-timed rains late in the season appear to have boosted prospects, scouts said.

"These cool temperatures and saturated soils make me optimistic," said Dave Green, tour leader and executive vice president of the Wheat Quality Council.

But wet conditions have raised the threat from yield-robbing diseases, including stripe rust.

Improved wheat genetics may have helped crops withstand adverse conditions, scouts said.

Some farmers have also boosted fertilizer applications and fungicide sprays, motivated by multiyear-high prices, said Kansas Wheat Commission Chief Executive Justin Gilpin.

A lower-protein Kansas crop may worry millers who typically rely on high-protein Northern Plains spring wheat for blending. A drought in North Dakota, the top spring wheat state, puts those supplies in doubt.

"If there are not going to be a lot of bushels up there, it might be a challenge to get what mills need to have," said Rich Kendrick, vice president of business development for Great Plains Analytical Lab in Kansas City.