Japan 2024 rice production expected to exceed demand, ease shortages

Private-sector rice inventories are projected to improve to 1.62 million tons by the end of June 2025 from an all-time low of 1.53 million tons a year earlier, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said, boding well for the recent supply shortages and price surge caused by extreme summer heat that reduced the previous season's harvest.

But the price of rice, a staple food, may remain relatively high, as inflation is expected to keep production costs such as for utilities and fertilizers elevated, observers said.

Regarding demand, the ministry believes the long-term downward trend will remain unchanged, with recent demand growth simply the result of a slower pace in rice price increases than those of noodles and bread and more consumption in restaurants on the back of the current booming inbound tourism.

Production volume in 2025 is expected to remain unchanged at 6.83 million tons, but demand is likely to fall to 6.63 million tons, partly due to high prices, the ministry said.

The supply and demand outlook may be revised, however, as some experts, in a meeting hosted by the ministry, warned that "the risk of a downturn in demand is high" due to the reversal impact of the sudden increase in demand this year and rising prices.

The ministry released an analysis of rice shortages over the summer, saying that rice supply failed to keep up with the rise in demand from stockpiling after the weather agency in August issued its first-ever advisory warning of the increased risk of a megaquake along the Nankai Trough.