El Niño is forecast to intensify, increasing likelihood of extreme weather

The WMO community is stepping up coordination, climate information services and early warning support to help governments, humanitarian agencies, climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture and health, and vulnerable communities prepare for potential impacts.

WMO’s monthly WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update indicates a rapid development into a strong El Niño event during July–September 2026. Multi-model ensemble forecasts from leading global producing centres indicate a consistent and significant warming of ocean temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, with seasonal-average sea-surface temperature anomalies expected to exceed 2°C in key monitoring regions.

Forecast models show remarkable agreement, providing high confidence in the outlook. El Niño is expected to continue strengthening during the Northern Hemisphere autumn, with its influence extending across many regions of the globe. Meanwhile, the equatorial Atlantic basin is expected to remain generally warmer than average.

The Global Seasonal Climate Update complements WMO’s full El Niño/La Niña Update (issued 2 June). It provides a broader assessment of seasonal climate conditions by incorporating the influence of multiple climate drivers, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and Atlantic Ocean conditions, in addition to El Niño.

“El Niño conditions are already underway and are forecast to strengthen rapidly into a strong event - as accurately anticipated by WMO forecasts. This will intensify the chances of drought and heavy rainfall and the risk of heatwaves on land and marine heatwaves in many regions of the world,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.

“The WMO community has launched an unprecedented mobilization to coordinate activities across the United Nations and at regional level to support governments, humanitarian organizations and climate-sensitive sectors.  Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities,” she said.

Global impacts

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); one of the most powerful drivers of year-to-year climate variability. It is a naturally occurring climate patterns characterized by above-average sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

El Niño events typically occur every two to seven years and usually last between nine and twelve months. They often begin developing between March and June, reach peak intensity between November and February, and exert their strongest influence on global temperatures during the year following their onset.

The effects of each El Niño event vary depending on the intensity, duration, time of year when it develops, and also how it interacts with other climate variability modes (such as the Indian Ocean Dipole). Not all regions of the world are affected, and even within a region, impacts can be different. Even when ENSO is neutral, extreme weather can still occur.

WMO classifies ENSO events as weak, moderate, strong or very strong. The term “super El Niño” is not part of WMO's operational classification system and is therefore not used in official WMO products.

The seasonal outlook maps, illustrate the probabilities of seasonal mean surface temperature(left) and precipitation (right) falling into above-, near-, or below-normal categories relative to local climatology. The colour coding identifies the category with the highest forecast probability. For example, red, blue, or grey regions indicate that the seasonal mean surface air temperature is most likely to be above-, below-, or near-normal, respectively. Deeper shades reflect a higher probability of the seasonal mean falling into that dominant category, while white areas denote equal chances (33.3% each) for all three categories. Crucially, an assigned colour indicates probability rather than certainty

Temperature Outlook

The Global Seasonal Climate Update predicts an overwhelming likelihood of above average temperatures across most land areas between 60°S and 60°N – which covers nearly all populated areas outside Polar regions.

Over the oceans, the equatorial Pacific reflects a heavily structured footprint of the rapidly intensifying El Niño event, with more than 80% likelihood of above-normal sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific east of the Date Line. Above-normal temperatures are also predicted for the Indian Ocean and the tropical Atlantic. In contrast, a persistent horseshoe-like pattern of below- to near-normal temperature probabilities is predicted across the North Atlantic.

Rainfall Outlook

The July–September 2026 rainfall outlook reflects a pattern that is consistent with a strengthening El Niño event.

Enhanced likelihood of above-normal rainfall is forecast across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, while below-normal rainfall is more likely across parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent and much of Australia.

Across equatorial Africa, the probabilistic signals display a prominent east-west contrast. Land areas bordering the northern Gulf of Guinea are forecast to receive above-normal rainfall, in contrast to below-normal rainfall for the Greater Horn of Africa.

Below-normal rainfall is also forecast for parts of Central America, the Caribbean and northwestern South America. In contrast, wetter-than-average conditions are more likely across portions of the southwestern United States.

Across Europe, forecasts suggest a north-south contrast, with increased chances of above-normal rainfall in southern Europe and below-normal rainfall in northern Europe. However, for Europe, forecast confidence remains lower than in many other regions.

WMO Action

WMO is intensifying its mobilization of information and support services to help countries anticipate and minimize the impacts of El Niño.

Regular briefings are being provided across the United Nations system and to humanitarian partners to support preparedness and risk management efforts. A WMO Coordination Mechanism Seasonal Climate Outlook briefing for UN agencies and humanitarian organizations e on 24 June 2026 included regional outlooks such as the 2026 West African and Sahel rainy season forecast from the AGRHYMET Regional Climate Centre.

WMO is also developing a series of webinars and technical exchanges to strengthen regional coordination, communication and preparedness in response to the emerging El Niño event.