China’s fresh durian protocol is an opportunity, but ‘durian tsunami’ and logistics costs make profitability trickier

According to Vincent Lee of Malaysian fresh and frozen durian exporter Top Fruits Sdn, the implementation of the Malaysia–China Fresh Durian Export Protocol in August 2024 has significantly altered export dynamics. "Compared with previous years when Malaysia relied heavily on frozen durian, the 2025–2026 season marks a transition toward fresh whole fruit exports via air freight, sea shipment, and cross-border road transport."

Lee says export movement was particularly strong into Southern China markets such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hainan, and Guangxi, with Top Fruits completing multiple fresh durian shipments by sea and air between June 2025 and February 2026. "Malaysia's total durian production is estimated at around 613,000 metric tonnes in 2025, positioning the country as a premium-focused exporter rather than a high-volume supplier."

"One key change is the shift from frozen-only dependence toward fresh premium exports with better market access, stronger branding, and improved value capture," Lee explains. However, he notes that while demand remains healthy, pricing stability has become increasingly difficult. A bumper mid-season harvest created what the industry described as a "durian tsunami," flooding the market and triggering aggressive discounts.

Production quality for premium varieties continues to be strong despite weather volatility, supported by stricter harvest monitoring, precision agriculture, and improved farm management systems. "Musang King or D197 continues to dominate Malaysia's premium segment due to its creamy texture and strong global brand recognition, while Black Thorn is gaining popularity among high-end consumers," Lee adds.

"China remains Malaysia's dominant export destination, accounting for around 90% of global durian import demand. Beyond China, demand is also growing in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, the Middle East, Europe, and North America for frozen durian products."

Still, logistics remains a major challenge. "Air cargo costs to China have increased by approximately 25 to 40% on certain routes due to oil price volatility and Middle East geopolitical tensions," Lee states. "At the same time, frozen durian prices continue to face pressure from oversupply and inventory backlogs."

Competition within Southeast Asia is also intensifying. "Thailand and Vietnam continue to dominate the global durian trade through larger production volumes and stronger logistics infrastructure, with estimated 2025 production volumes of 1.68 and 1.5 million MT respectively."

Malaysia, however, is positioning itself differently: "We are not competing on volume," Lee says. "Malaysia's strength lies in premium quality, traceability, innovation, and branding." Top Fruits currently exports fresh and frozen Musang King, Black Thorn, Golden Phoenix, and D24 durians, while also expanding into downstream consumer products like gelato, mochi, and cheesecake under its GoldThon brand.

Looking ahead, Lee believes Malaysia's long-term opportunity lies in building a globally recognised premium durian ecosystem supported by smart farming, improved sea freight logistics, and stronger international branding. "China's stricter residue inspections are ultimately a positive development for the industry because they push exporters toward better farming practices, stronger traceability systems, and higher product consistency," he says. "For Malaysia, this is an opportunity to strengthen our positioning as a premium-quality durian origin rather than competing purely on scale."