China’s corn imports slow to a crawl putting forecasts in doubt

China imported just 180,000 tons of corn in January and February, bringing the total for the 2024-25 marketing year that began in October to 1.07 million tons, according to customs data on Tuesday. The last time imports were so weak was 2017-18, when 1.03 million tons were recorded in the first five months of the campaign.

The farm ministry is forecasting just 9 million tons of purchases for the full year, less than half the previous season and sharply reduced from an earlier estimate of 13 million tons. By comparison, China ended up buying only 3.5 million tons in 2017-18.

Poor consumption of agricultural goods is another casualty of a sluggish economy. The government last year asked traders to limit purchases of overseas grain including corn, to bolster domestic prices and protect farm profits. Other headwinds to imports include the 15% tariff imposed on US corn this month, one element of Beijing’s retaliation against the blanket levies imposed by Washington on Chinese exports.

Weaker demand from the struggling livestock industry pushed corn futures in China to their lowest level in more than three years in January, forcing the state stockpiler to step in to support the market.

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