Cashew kernel exports will continue to reach over 3 billion USD in turnover

The Vietnam Cashew Association (Vinacas) held a preliminary review conference for cashew production and trading in the first six months of 2023 on the afternoon of July 26. According to Mr. Bach Khanh Nhut, Vice Chairman of Vinacas, Vietnam's cashew industry exported over 279,000 tons of cashew kernels with a turnover of 1.6 billion USD in the first six months of 2023. This is an increase of 9.49% in volume and 7.65% in value over the same period in 2022. The average export price of cashew kernels was 5,717 USD per ton, which is a decrease of 1.73% over the same period in 2022.

Despite numerous difficulties and challenges, cashew kernel continues to be one of Vietnam's key agricultural product exports with a positive growth rate. Accordingly, cashew kernels are one of the agricultural product group with over 1 billion USD in export turnover during the the first half of 2023.

The growth of the cashew industry is forecast to face continuous difficulties and challenges from the second half of 2023 until the first quarter of 2024.

Vinacas proposed two scenarios in response to the challenges in cashew kernel export. Accordingly, the "positive" scenario purports that demand stimulation and increased consumption will help reduce the cashew kernel inventories in major consuming markets including the US and Europe, resulting in a significantly boosted demand by the end of the year.

Stricter quality control in key markets will bar low-priced, low-quality cashew kernels from entering. Consequently, the price and the quality of export products will be stabilized.

The rising input costs and declining shell prices will force processing businesses to coordinate and balance the selling price in order to avoid heavy losses. An unprofitable cashew crop in East Africa and Indonesia will raise the price of raw cashew towards the end of the year.

Convsersely, the "negative" scenario for cashew consumption purports that the rapidly declining global economy will render cashew a non-essential commodity. As a result, consumer demand for this product will drop; whereas buyers will avoid purchasing cashew kernels until they see positive growth as well as a prospect of a sustainable profit. Additionally, a favorable cashew crop in East Africa and Indonesia will increase the amount of raw cashews supplied to the market.

The Executive Board of Vinacas predicts that the export turnover of Vietnamese cashew kernels will reach 3.05 billion USD in 2023. Although the turnover may decrease compared to the original plan, the cashew industry would still be able to reach the 3 billion USD mark, which is the export turnover goal that the cashew industry has consistently achieved since 2017.