Climate change is causing increasing damage, while agricultural infrastructure and logistics are showing many bottlenecks. Although maintaining growth momentum, the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector is in need of strong and targeted capital flows to remain a stable pillar of the economy and meet sustainable development commitments.
Investment in agriculture is facing an urgent time requirement: climate change is causing increasing damage, while infrastructure and value chain bottlenecks are becoming more evident as the scale of commodity production grows rapidly. According to the National Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance), the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector still accounted for about 12% of the economy in 2024 and maintained positive growth of 3.27% despite being affected by natural disasters, epidemics, and market fluctuations. This shows the stabilizing role of agriculture, but also sets out the requirement for targeted reinvestment to sustain growth and resilience for the entire economy.
The biggest pressure comes from climate. The World Bank Group's Country Climate and Development Reports estimated that Viet Nam lost about USD 10 billion in 2020, equivalent to 3.2% of GDP, due to climate impacts. The damage is expected to increase if adaptation investments are not strong enough. Output losses could reach 5.6 - 6.2% by 2030, depending on emission scenarios. For the two key agricultural regions, the World Bank warned that production area could shrink by about 12% in the Red River Delta and 24% in the Mekong Delta under worsening climate conditions. Recent salinity intrusion episodes (2015–2016; 2019–2020) have proven this risk, and Viet Nam's meteorological and hydrological agency continues to warn of saltwater intrusion threats in the Mekong Delta during recent dry seasons. These figures reinforce the argument that without immediate investment in irrigation systems, disaster prevention, and adaptive technologies, socio-economic costs will continue to escalate.
Another serious weakness lies in post-harvest and logistics. It is estimated that Viet Nam loses about 8.8 million tons of agricultural and fishery products annually, equivalent to USD 3.9 billion, about 2% of national GDP and up to 12% of agricultural GDP. For fruits and vegetables alone, loss rates commonly range from 25–30% due to the lack of cold storage, specialized transport, and modern preservation technology, according to data compiled by the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment. FAO once set a goal for Viet Nam to significantly reduce post-harvest losses in rice (from 11 - 13% down to 5 - 6%) and seafood (from 20% down to 10%), but to achieve this requires significant capital flows into logistics, cold chains, standardized packaging, and processing.
Meanwhile, the ability to allocate capital to agriculture remains limited compared to the sector's contribution. Many domestic analyses record that the proportion of public investment for agriculture is usually low compared to total social investment, not commensurate with its pillar role. This context sets out the requirement to mobilize budget capital, preferential credit, and private investment for transformative areas such as production technology, deep processing, high-quality seeds, irrigation, disaster prevention, climate response, and cold chain logistics.
The 2025 credit context, with improved lending interest rates (averaging about 6.38%/year), is an opportunity to design targeted credit packages for agriculture. However, capital flows will only be effective if accompanied by infrastructure and supply chain projects with clear addresses and technical standards. Investment is no longer a choice but an inevitable requirement, focusing on five key directions: high-tech and sustainable agriculture; deep processing; seeds; irrigation and climate response; logistics and cold chains.
In recent years, high-tech agriculture is no longer a new concept, but its application level remains limited. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, by the end of 2024 the country had just over 100 certified high-tech agricultural enterprises, mainly concentrated in the Southeast provinces and the Red River Delta. This figure is too small compared to more than 800,000 enterprises operating nationwide, and further shows that there is much room for expansion but a lack of capital.
Initial investment costs for high-tech agriculture are very high. One hectare of hydroponic vegetables in greenhouses currently requires capital of VND 7-10 billion, including greenhouse costs, drip irrigation systems, substrates, and automated control systems. Meanwhile, farmers and cooperatives usually only mobilize a few hundred million dong, while small and medium enterprises find it challenging to access long-term credit. A report by the State Bank of Viet Nam estimated that outstanding credit for the entire agricultural sector was about VND 2.3 quadrillion as of mid-2024, but the capital flowing into high-tech projects accounted for a very small proportion.
Ha Thu Giang, Director of the Department of Credit for Economic Sectors (State Bank of Viet Nam), acknowledged that the reason lies in the sector's specific nature. “High-tech agricultural projects often require large loans over long periods, but agricultural production always carries risks from natural disasters and epidemics, while risk prevention tools have not kept pace,” she shared.
Meanwhile, the potential is evident. Models implemented in Lam Dong, Hung Yen, and Ninh Binh show that vegetable yields in greenhouses can be 3-5 times higher than outdoors, with loss rates reduced by 20-30%, while saving up to 70% of irrigation water. FAO research indicates that with reasonable investment, high-tech agriculture could help Viet Nam increase the average production value per hectare of land from more than VND 100 million today to VND 400–500 million. This is the foundation for sustainable production development, reducing land pressure, and adapting to climate change.
The issue is that apart from a few large corporations such as TH, Vinamilk, or some FDI enterprises, the number of businesses capable of methodical investment is still very limited. Even in leading localities like Lam Dong, high-tech production area accounts for only about 20% of vegetable and flower acreage; many other places almost have none. This reflects a reality: without preferential credit policies, public-private investment funds, or initial support packages, high-tech agriculture is unlikely to expand widely.
In the context of Viet Nam's commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050, high-tech agriculture is also tied to emission reduction goals. Circular farming models, biomass energy, and smart fertilizer management could help reduce methane emissions, which account for up to 48% of the agriculture sector's greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, investment capital in this field carries not only economic significance but also directly determines Viet Nam's ability to fulfill international commitments.
If high technology helps improve productivity and quality at the production stage, deep processing and the food industry are decisive factors for the final value of Vietnamese agricultural products in the market. One of Viet Nam's chronic weaknesses is the low proportion of products undergoing deep processing, leading to low added value and heavy reliance on raw exports. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, by the end of 2024, Viet Nam had more than 7,500 industrial-scale agro-forestry-fishery processing facilities, but only about 20% were equipped with modern technology; the rest were mainly primary processing. The added value of the processing industry currently accounts for only about 30% of total agricultural export value, much lower than over 50% in Thailand and nearly 70% in developed countries.
This reality makes Vietnamese agricultural products prone to oversupply, leading to price drops, because when oversupply occurs, raw products are difficult to preserve and lack processing options to maintain value. In 2024, fruit and vegetable exports reached a record USD 7.12 billion. Of that, processed goods accounted for just over USD 1 billion (about 14%), with the rest being mostly fresh produce. These factors show that the largest potential lies in deep processing. For seafood, export turnover in 2024 reached USD 10 billion. The product structure remains skewed toward frozen goods; frozen pangasius fillets alone accounted for over 80% of pangasius export value, showing that the export base still relies heavily on semi-processed products, although the proportion of added value is improving in some segments.
Regulators have recognized this gap. Le Minh Hoan, Vice Chairman of the National Assembly and former Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, emphasized: “To elevate Vietnamese agriculture and fisheries, we need to move beyond the buy-and-sell mindset and build trust for farmers.” He also noted: “The product is what we can produce, but the commodity is what the market needs and what we can sell.”
However, to invest in deep processing, enterprises need large amounts of capital for technology lines, preservation systems, and compliance with HACCP, ISO, Halal, and Kosher standards. These are “passports” for Vietnamese agricultural products to enter demanding markets such as the EU, United States, Japan, and Middle East. The investment cost for a fruit and vegetable processing plant with a capacity of 10,000 tons/year is usually USD 200-300 million, beyond the capacity of most small and medium enterprises, which account for up to 97% of enterprises in the sector. Meanwhile, preferential investment policies for agricultural processing remain limited and insufficient to create a breakthrough.
Deep processing is not merely an economic solution but also a risk prevention measure against climate change. As agricultural production becomes increasingly unstable due to extreme weather, the ability to extend storage time and diversify products through processing will help farmers and businesses reduce price risks and stabilize output.
Crop, livestock, and aquaculture breeds are foundational to agricultural productivity and quality, but this stage still faces many limitations and heavy import dependence. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Viet Nam spends about USD 1.5 - 2 billion annually on imports of breeding stock, of which up to 90% are breeding pigs and grandparents, some marine fish strains, giant freshwater prawns, and high-yield dairy cows, which still must be purchased from abroad. This dependence increases production costs, reduces competitiveness, and makes agriculture vulnerable to international market fluctuations.
In cultivation, many key hybrids, such as hybrid corn and F1 hybrid vegetables, largely come from foreign corporations. Even for rice, the main export commodity, high-quality varieties for export account for only about 25 - 30% of the planted area, with the rest being mostly commercial varieties retained by farmers or from small markets. This leads to unstable productivity, limited pest resistance, and weak climate adaptation.
Livestock is facing a similar problem. Although Viet Nam is among the world's largest animal feed producers, breeding stock development capacity has not kept pace with demand. Statistics from the Department of Livestock Production and Veterinary Medicine show that the market share of imported breeding stock, especially dairy cows and foreign pigs, remains high, while indigenous purebred strains are shrinking. This not only raises the risk of biological imbalance but also reduces genetic self-sufficiency.
Domestic breed autonomy has been strengthened by Resolution No. 57-NQ/TW dated December 22, 2024, of the Politburo, on breakthroughs in science, technology, innovation, and national digital transformation. This document emphasizes the requirement to promote research, breeding, and production of high-quality crop, livestock, and aquaculture varieties adapted to climate change, considering them pillars to improve productivity and ensure food security.
Deputy Minister Phung Duc Tien has repeatedly stressed the role of breeding stock in restructuring livestock, affirming that the priority is to leverage high-quality breeds with strengths to reduce dependence on imports gradually.
Investment in breeding is also an investment in long-term productivity. According to FAO, good varieties can help increase productivity by 20 - 40% without expanding acreage. As agricultural land is increasingly limited and climate change becomes more complex, preserving and developing high-quality breeding stock plays a decisive role in international competitiveness and future food security.
In the increasingly harsh climate change context, irrigation and disaster prevention infrastructure are key factors protecting agricultural production. In the Mekong Delta, the country's largest rice, fruit, and seafood basket, drought and salinity have caused severe damage. The Department of Management and Construction of Irrigation Works reported that in 2015-2016, about 405,000 hectares of farmland were affected; in the 2019-2020 dry season, this figure rose to 500,000 hectares, leaving more than 100,000 households without domestic water.
According to the World Bank, climate change could reduce Viet Nam's GDP by 3.5–14.5% by 2050, with agriculture being the most directly affected sector. This report also stressed that investing in adaptation infrastructure is the most cost-effective solution: every USD spent on prevention can save 4 - 5 USD in recovery costs.
Professor Dao Xuan Hoc, former Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development and Chairman of the Viet Nam Water Resources Development Association, emphasized: “Thanks to irrigation, Viet Nam went from a food-deficient country to one of the world's leading rice exporters. Irrigation not only protects people's lives and assets but also lays the foundation for socio-economic development and national water security.”
In reality, the current irrigation system meets only about 75% of crop irrigation needs. Many facilities are degraded, lack synchronization, and are insufficient to cope with drought, salinity, and flood control. The central and northern mountainous provinces also constantly face storms, floods, landslides, and flash floods, but capital for disaster prevention remains fragmented, mainly limited to small-scale maintenance.
This situation shows that investment in irrigation and climate adaptation is not only an infrastructure issue but also a long-term strategy to protect livelihoods for tens of millions of farmers, reduce socio-economic losses, and maintain agriculture's role as a stabilizing pillar.
While irrigation and disaster prevention infrastructure protect production against nature, logistics and cold chains determine whether agricultural products can reach domestic and international markets with guaranteed quality. Post-harvest losses remain a chronic weakness. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment, Viet Nam loses about 9 million tons of agricultural and fishery products annually, equivalent to USD 3.9 billion, about 2% of national GDP and up to 12% of agricultural GDP. For fruits and vegetables, loss rates commonly range from 25–30%, and in some places over 30%, mainly due to lack of cold storage, specialized transport, and modern preservation technology.
Meanwhile, Viet Nam's agricultural logistics system remains fragmented and regionally disconnected. According to the Viet Nam Logistics Business Association (VLA), logistics costs for agricultural products often account for 20–25% of production costs, much higher than the global average of 10-15%. This makes Vietnamese agricultural products less competitive internationally, especially when required to meet high standards of traceability and quality.
An FAO report once recommended that Viet Nam should strongly invest in cold chains, including cold storage, refrigerated containers, and specialized transport, to reduce losses, extend preservation time, and diversify processed products. However, the cost of building a cold storage facility with a capacity of 5,000 tons currently ranges from USD 80-100 million, exceeding the capacity of most small and medium enterprises.
Representatives of the Viet Nam Fruits and Vegetables Association (Vinafruit) have repeatedly stressed that if Vietnamese fruits and vegetables are to access demanding markets such as the EU, United States, and Japan, modern logistics are indispensable. Chairman Nguyen Thanh Binh once stated: “If we do not significantly improve logistics and cold chains, we will remain stuck in nearby markets, unable to access distant ones, which carry higher value.”
Overall, logistics and cold chains are not just technical support stages but the decisive link for integration and added value of Vietnamese agricultural products. If this gap is filled with investment capital from the budget, preferential credit, and socialization, it will create spillover effects across the entire value chain, from farmers to export enterprises.