Troubled world pushes fertilizer prices

Farmers will pay up again for fertilizer this year, and the reasons reflect a familiar laundry list of geopolitical flashpoints and supply constraints.

• For corn farmers, fertilizer costs are expected to average about $166 per acre in 2026, up 5.3% from 2025, based on a USDA forecast.

• For soybeans, costs may average $57 per acre, up 5.2%. 

“While farmers continue to struggle with lower grain values, global events continue to push fertilizer prices higher,” said Josh Linville, a fertilizer analyst at StoneX. Linville said the Russia-Ukraine war, European production shortfalls, an uprising in Iran and a lack of Chinese exports “are just the start of the list of things that are causing farmer fertilizer costs to remain high.”

But fertilizer isn’t a monolith, and individual markets can move on their own unique dynamics. Linville summarized recent trends for key fertilizers:

Anhydrous Ammonia (NH3)

Global supplies remain tight amid disruptions in top producers, including Russia, whose exports are “still a shell of their former self,” Linville said. By contrast, North American supplies “are more readily available, but are still going to be snug over the next few months.” That may especially be the case with U.S. corn plantings expected to be “healthy,” he said, citing projections for at least 93 million acres and potentially 95 million.

NH3 prices averaged almost $865 per ton as of mid-January, up 18% from a year earlier, based on Iowa distributor values tracked by USDA.

Phosphate

Since last summer, phosphate values have corrected lower more than anticipated, “but a firm price floor is likely in place,” Linville said. The “biggest global issue” is reduced supply from China, the world’s top exporter. China shipped more than expected in 2025. But the country’s 2026 export strategy is still “fuzzy” and it’s possible it may not ship anything until August.

China’s lack of exports contributed to skyrocketing phosphate prices during the first half of 2025, so “imagine what happens if they do not export until August or later this year,” Linville said. Diammonium phosphate (DAP) averaged $828 per ton in Illinois as of early February, up 13% from a year earlier.

Potash

This is the only major fertilizer product that is “priced well,” Linville said, based on comparisons to historical values. However, major watch points continue to be strained U.S. relations with top suppliers Canada and Russia. The U.S. is “highly reliant on imported potash but has more than enough supply available as long as relations can be maintained,” he said.

In late January, potash averaged about $489 per ton in Illinois, up 7.3% from a year earlier.

What can farmers do? Linville acknowledged the tough reality. “I wish I had some great words of advice,” he said. “Best thing I can say is to not bury your head in hard times like this. There are still opportunities out there.” For one, he recommended farmers lock in supplies in tight markets before prices rise further.

“Are they phenomenal opportunities? No. Will they stick around very long? No. But if we just forge ahead and refuse to keep our eyes open, we’ll miss out.