Securing water resources amid El Niño: [5] Early warning, proactive action

Speaking to VAN News, Ngo Manh Ha, Deputy Director General of the Department of Water Resources Management, said that following the historic drought in 2016, Viet Nam has gradually made fundamental changes in its approach to and methods of managing water resources. With the risk of a very strong El Niño returning, these reforms are continuing to be accelerated in a more modern direction, driven by data, digital technologies and artificial intelligence.

Moving from administrative management to river basin governance

Sir, how has Viet Nam’s water resource governance changed since the severe drought in 2016?

The 2016 drought can be considered a shock that forced us to reassess the entire way we manage water resources. The fundamental change has been the shift from managing water according to administrative boundaries to managing it based on river basins.

At the same time, the legal framework has been strengthened, particularly with the revised Law on Water Resources, providing a foundation for regulating and allocating water resources through inter-reservoir and inter-regional operating procedures. We are no longer simply responding when drought occurs. Instead, we have begun developing water resource scenarios, strengthening early forecasting, and gradually establishing a water resources data system to support management and decision-making.

Compared with 2016, the biggest difference today is that we are more proactive. Although we still face extreme events such as very strong El Niño, water management is now underpinned by scientific evidence, scenarios and supporting data.

One of the most important changes following the severe drought has been the development of water resource scenarios. Rather than relying entirely on natural developments, the water resources sector has begun forecasting, modelling and preparing response measures in advance.

These scenarios are developed based on multiple layers of data, including hydrometeorological conditions, river flows, water reserves and the water demand of different economic sectors. Climate change factors are also incorporated, helping improve long-term forecasting capacity.

At the same time, there have been significant improvements in water regulation and allocation. The operation of interconnected reservoirs is no longer based solely on experience, but is increasingly supported by data and computational models. This enables water resources to be allocated more flexibly and helps reduce conflicts among competing water uses.

However, in practice, there are still some “bottlenecks”. Data are not yet fully synchronized across sectors and localities; monitoring networks remain inadequate and do not yet provide comprehensive coverage; and the accuracy of forecasts under extreme conditions remains limited.

With the risk of a very strong El Niño, what does Vietnam need to do to avoid a repeat of the shock experienced in 2016, sir?

The water resources sector has identified five key groups of solutions.

First is river basin-based management. This requires changes in coordination among localities, shifting from a “local” mindset to a more interconnected approach to ensure water is allocated fairly and efficiently.

Second is greater investment in data and forecasting. Upgrading monitoring systems, integrating data and developing advanced forecasting models will help strengthen response capacity.

Third is increasing water storage capacity. This does not simply mean building more reservoirs, but also making greater use of natural water storage solutions, as well as water storage in soils and agricultural production.

Fourth is reducing dependence on groundwater. Overexploitation has led to land subsidence and increased the risk of saltwater intrusion, particularly in delta regions. Therefore, groundwater extraction needs to be strictly controlled, while measures are taken to gradually restore groundwater resources.

Fifth is building national water security. Water is not merely a natural resource; it is also fundamental to food security, energy security and social welfare. This represents a strategic, long-term approach.

Developing digital model for water resource governance

If very strong El Niño conditions return, what should be the top priority in water resource management? How does Vietnam need to change its approach to water security? And what investment is most urgent over the next 5-10 years, sir?

In the context of a potentially strong return of El Niño, Vietnam's top priority is to ensure water supplies for people's daily needs and essential sectors, while maintaining socio-economic stability. To achieve this, water management needs to become more flexible and rely on real-time data rather than experience as it did in the past.

Over the medium and long term (the next 5-10 years), the most urgent priority is to invest in data infrastructure and accelerate digital transformation in water resource management. A unified, interconnected data system linking central and local authorities, and integrating monitoring, forecasting and water-use data, will provide the foundation for accurate and timely decision-making.

On this basis, the Department of Water Resources Management is implementing the project “Development and operation of an information system and digital model to support decision-making on water resource regulation and allocation, and to monitor and supervise the coordinated real-time operation of interconnected reservoirs across Vietnam’s major river basins.” The project aims to establish a unified digital platform to directly support water resource management and decision-making.

The project focuses on developing a software system and specialized modules for seven major river basins, ensuring the integration and interoperability of data from multiple sources.

Once completed, the system will provide essential decision-support tools, including the development of water resource scenarios, calculation of allocation options among sectors and regions, simulation and optimization of interconnected reservoir operations, as well as monitoring water extraction and providing early warnings of risks such as drought and water shortages. The entire process will operate on a digital data platform, enabling near-real-time monitoring and analysis.

The integration of advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, GIS, remote sensing and IoT will enhance analytical and forecasting capabilities, while enabling faster and more accurate decision-making. In this way, the system will not only modernize water resource management but also establish an intelligent management tool, helping shift water resource governance from a reactive to a proactive approach and from experience-based management to data-driven decision-making. This will contribute to ensuring the efficiency, sustainability and long-term security of Vietnam’s water resources.

Once the digital platform and intelligent management tools are fully developed, water resource management will no longer be merely a matter of “responding” to challenges, but will become a proactive, scientific and optimized coordination process. This marks an important step toward ensuring sustainable national water security while strengthening Vietnam’s capacity to adapt to the increasingly severe challenges posed by climate change.

Thank you very much for speaking with us, sir!