Seafood exports need to overcome 4 major challenges

According to the Viet Nam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), seafood exports reached USD 1.02 billion in July, bringing total seafood export turnover in the first seven months of the year to USD 6.78 billion, up 11.5%.

Commenting on the outlook for seafood exports over the final five months of the year, Le Hang, Deputy Secretary General of VASEP, identified four major challenges. The first is the additional tariffs imposed by the US Government under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 on 60 economies, including Viet Nam.

Accordingly, Vietnamese goods imported into the United States have been subject to an additional 12.5% tariff since July 24, 2026. Vietnamese seafood products affected by this tariff include shrimp, tuna, pangasius, squid and standard frozen seafood products.

Le Hang, Deputy Secretary General of VASEP, said: “Since July 24, 2026, when the United States imposed additional tariffs under Section 301, policy decisions have been determining seafood orders more quickly than demand.”

Le Hang said that while Viet Nam faces an additional 12.5% tariff, the three largest shrimp exporters to the US market, Ecuador, India and Indonesia, are subject to a 10% tariff. This puts Vietnamese shrimp at a significant disadvantage in the US market. In addition to the additional tariff, some Vietnamese shrimp products exported to the US are also subject to anti-dumping and countervailing duties. For some products, the combined tariffs can reach 30%, leaving them with virtually no room to compete in the US market.

The second major challenge is compliance with traceability and documentation requirements under the US Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) and the Certificate of Admissibility (COA), as well as the EU’s IUU yellow card.

The third challenge is rising input costs for aquaculture due to higher ocean freight rates and global fishmeal prices, as fishmeal production in Peru remains low.

The fourth challenge is market competition. The new US tariffs and policies in other markets are putting significant pressure on the profitability of Vietnamese seafood exporters, thereby affecting the competitiveness of Vietnamese seafood in major markets, particularly the US, EU and China.

In the US market, Vietnamese frozen shrimp is at a disadvantage compared with products from Ecuador and India in terms of tariffs, logistics and other factors.

China has strong demand for seafood but is also requiring lower prices. Competing with Ecuadorian shrimp in this market is another major challenge for Viet Nam’s seafood industry, as shrimp is one of the key seafood products exported to China. China is also imposing increasingly stringent requirements on business registration, traceability and food safety.

In the EU, rising prices of whitefish are creating opportunities for Vietnamese pangasius. However, buyers are becoming more cautious, while certification requirements are becoming increasingly stringent.

Based on seafood export performance in the first seven months of the year, along with policy developments and demand trends in major markets, VASEP has developed three scenarios for Viet Nam’s seafood export turnover in 2026: cautious, baseline and positive.

Under the positive scenario, VASEP projects seafood exports could reach USD 12.5 billion. This scenario would only materialize if many barriers in the US and other markets were removed, or if there were changes to tariffs on imports into the US. However, this is considered unlikely in the near term.

Under the cautious scenario, VASEP estimates that with orders declining sharply, Vietnamese shrimp struggling to compete with Ecuadorian shrimp, a slow recovery in EU demand and stagnant conditions in several markets, Viet Nam’s seafood exports in 2026 would reach USD 11.8-12 billion.

Le Hang said VASEP is leaning toward the baseline, or optimistic, scenario. Under this scenario, VASEP forecasts Viet Nam’s total seafood exports in 2026 at USD 12.1-12.3 billion, up 8-10% from 2025. VASEP expects the Chinese market to maintain the growth momentum seen over the first seven months, while Japan and other CPTPP markets remain stable and the US and EU markets do not decline significantly.

$ 1 = VND 26,320 - Source: Vietcombank.