Q2 2026: Accelerating to achieve US $ 73 - 74 billion in agricultural exports

Consistent target despite slowing momentum

In Q1 2026, agro-forestry-fishery exports continued to maintain a large scale, with total turnover estimated at USD 16.69 billion, up 2.1% compared to the same period, thereby generating a trade surplus of USD 4.59 billion, an increase of 4.6%.

The export structure shows clear differences among commodity groups: agricultural products reached USD 8.6 billion, up 0.3%; fisheries reached USD 2.52 billion, recording a positive growth of 9.1%; while forestry products reached USD 3.97 billion but declined by 5.6%. Notably, the livestock sector recorded strong growth of over 50%.

In terms of export prices, most key commodities (rice, coffee, rubber, cashew nuts, and pepper) experienced a downward trend, with average price declines ranging from 0.8% to 16.8%.

Regarding markets, exports remained concentrated in major partners. Of which, China accounted for 22.1% of total market share and posted strong growth of 32.7%; the U.S. held 20.7% but declined by 8.6%; and Japan accounted for 16.2%, down slightly by 2.1%. These figures reflect a shift and rebalancing of markets amid global trade volatility.

Overall, although total export turnover has maintained an upward trend, the growth rate has slowed due to market challenges. Agro-forestry-fishery exports are forecast to face difficulties in the coming period due to the impact of the Middle East military conflict, which heightens risks of supply chain disruptions and increases in energy and international transport costs.

Nevertheless, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (MAE) remains committed to maintaining stable growth momentum in 2026, targeting an overall growth rate of around 3.7% for the agro-forestry-fishery sector, with an ambition to reach 4%.

Specifically, each subsector has defined growth targets: agriculture at approximately 3.86%, fisheries at 4.42%, and forestry at 5.51%. Growth is distributed across the year in phases, with Q1 achieving 3.6%, the first half projected at 3.7%, Q3 expected to range between 3.8% and 3.9%, the first nine months between 3.7% and 3.9%, and the full-year target set at 3.7%-4%.

At the same time, the sector aims for total agro-forestry-fishery export turnover of approximately USD 73-74 billion, equivalent to a growth rate of 4.2%-5.6% compared to the estimated 2025 performance, thereby continuing to affirm its role as a pillar of the national economy.

A decisive acceleration phase

Amid increasingly complex global and regional developments, particularly political conflicts and fluctuations in trade policies, MAE's leaders affirmed that the sector has achieved many significant results in the early months of the year.

With production and export performance showing good results in January, strong growth in February, and a marked decline in March, failure to promptly address this trend could pose significant challenges to achieving growth targets. Therefore, Q2 is considered by the Ministry's leadership as a particularly critical period requiring comprehensive acceleration.

Brand building and the completion of standards and technical regulations for export products have been identified as key priorities, especially in ensuring food safety. The Ministry has also called on enterprises to avoid squeezing procurement prices and even to increase purchase prices to support farmers. Many input suppliers have committed to keeping prices stable. These measures aim to ensure that farmers secure reasonable profits for reinvestment, particularly amid rising input costs.

Tasks from the new Government

In early April, at the first session of the 16^th National Assembly, Prime Minister Le Minh Hung and members of the new Government presented the agriculture and environment sector's growth targets as part of the socio-economic development plan for the remaining months of 2026, as well as for the 2026–2030 period.

Specifically, in the agricultural sector, the Prime Minister requested accelerating the restructuring of agriculture toward efficiency, sustainability, and high added value.

In early April, the Government's Resolution No. 85/NQ-CP, related to Resolution No. 19-NQ/TW of the 13th Party Central Committee on agriculture, farmers, and rural areas to 2030 with a vision to 2045, clearly stated:

It is necessary to fundamentally and effectively restructure subsectors and individual industries, in association with renewing the growth model through enhanced application of science and technology, digital transformation, and the promotion of innovation. This aims to improve productivity, quality, efficiency, competitiveness, self-reliance, adaptability, and resilience in the economy.

In addition, production should be reorganized into specialized farming zones associated with geographical indications, traceability systems, and the establishment of growing area codes to meet market requirements. The transformation of the food system toward a green, low-emission, and sustainable model should also be implemented through promoting the development and application of science, technology, and innovation in agricultural production.

With the agricultural export target set at USD 73-74 billion in 2026, the sector needs to intensify trade promotion activities, facilitate the penetration of Vietnamese branded products into international distribution systems, and support domestic enterprises in deep integration into global value chains.

Adapting to the Middle East conflict

In the context of the increasingly complex Middle East conflict, which poses significant risks to global supply chains and trade, MAE has adopted a series of urgent measures to ensure the sector's growth targets for 2026.

The immediate priority is to stabilize the supply and prices of inputs such as fertilizers and fuel to reduce production costs, while proactively implementing rice procurement and stockpiling when prices fall to protect producers' interests.

The Ministry has also established information channels, including hotlines, to promptly capture difficulties faced by enterprises, cooperatives, and farmers, thereby enabling timely and flexible policy adjustments.

At the same time, monitoring and forecasting of international logistics risks have been strengthened, accompanied by early warning mechanisms to help businesses proactively respond to disruptions in transportation and payment.

In addition, close coordination with industry associations is being enhanced to update data on orders, inventories, and prices, thereby facilitating flexible management solutions tailored to each sector, as well as reviewing and proposing policies on credit and taxes to support production and exports.