Mekong Delta to skip autumn–winter crop if water is scarce

This directive is stated in Official Dispatch No. 1427/TTTV-TTBVTV issued by the Plant Production and Protection Department to the Departments of Agriculture and Environment in localities across the Mekong Delta and the Southeast region.

Accordingly, planning the autumn–winter crop must closely follow weather and hydrological developments, as well as irrigation conditions in each area. Locations at risk of water shortages or without adequate irrigation capacity are required to consider reducing acreage or avoiding sowing. At the same time, the expansion of the third crop is discouraged in coastal areas significantly affected by saltwater intrusion.

The autumn–winter crop is inherently the riskiest of the year, often facing adverse conditions at the end of the season. In recent years, a trend of reducing acreage in this high-risk crop has emerged in the Mekong Delta.

In 2026, these risks are forecast to intensify as El Nino may develop from mid-year, reducing rainfall and increasing the risk of water shortages and saltwater intrusion in Southern Viet Nam. Proactively cutting back or skipping crops in disadvantaged areas is considered a way to minimize losses rather than to pursue output.

The cropping calendar for each sub-region in the Mekong Delta is clearly defined. The upper zone (deeply flooded areas) will sow from late June to mid-July, finishing before August 10. The middle zone (shallow-flooded, freshwater alluvial areas) will concentrate sowing in early July, also completing before August 10. Coastal areas will start later, from mid-July to early August, and finish before August 20. This entire cropping schedule applies only when production conditions are met; otherwise, adjustments or suspension are required.

For the 2026 autumn–winter crop, the structure of varieties will continue to prioritize high-quality rice for export, accounting for 55–60%. Fragrant and specialty rice varieties will account for around 30%, while 5–10% will be medium- to low-quality varieties. The Department recommends increasing the use of short-duration varieties (under 95–100 days) with tolerance to drought and salinity.

For the summer–autumn crop, the Mekong Delta must complete sowing by June 10 in 3-crop rice areas, or by June 20 at the latest in 2-crop areas. Late sowing beyond these deadlines should be minimized to avoid end-of-season water shortages.

The Plant Production and Protection Department also proposes reducing seeding rates to 70–80 kg/ha and applying cultivation processes such as "1 Must, 5 Reductions" and alternate wetting and drying irrigation to cut costs.

For the seasonal crop, the requirement to "produce only when conditions are met" is emphasized more clearly. Rainfall-dependent areas should only sow in September when soil moisture is sufficient. The rice–shrimp model should be implemented only after complete desalinization and when freshwater supply is secured, with a flexible cropping calendar from July to August depending on local conditions.

Beyond rice, localities are advised against unplanned expansion of fruit tree areas, particularly durian and jackfruit. It is necessary to strictly control planning while strengthening safe production practices and management of planting area codes and packing facilities for export. For vegetables, the orientation is to produce according to market demand, avoiding overconcentration on a single crop that could lead to oversupply and reduced value.

These adjustments come amid forecasts that El Nino may emerge from mid-2026 with moderate to strong intensity, leading to lacking rainfall, declining water sources, and increasing saltwater intrusion in Southern Viet Nam, particularly at the end of the year and during the 2026–2027 dry season.

In this context, accepting reduced acreage or even skipping crops in disadvantaged areas is not merely a short-term solution but a direction to minimize losses and sustain production efficiency in the long term.

Currently, provinces in the Mekong Delta and the Southeast region are focusing on harvesting the 2025–2026 winter–spring rice crop. Harvest progress is accelerating, with more than 90% of the planted area expected to be harvested by the end of April 2026. However, rice prices remain volatile and market demand is not yet stable, which may affect the progress of the summer–autumn crop and subsequent seasons.