MAE urges comprehensive assessment of El Nino's economic impacts

This was emphasized by Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Le Cong Thanh during a working session with the Viet Nam Meteorological and Hydrological Administration (VNMHA) on June 16 to discuss climate trends in the second half of 2026 and developments related to the El Nino phenomenon

El Nino develops rapidly and may reach very strong intensity

According to Mr. Mai Van Khiem, Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, observational data show that sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region were 0.5°C above the long-term average in May and surged to 0.9°C above normal by mid-June.

Major climate centers around the world, including the Tokyo Climate Center (TCC), the Climate Prediction Center of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (CPC-NOAA), and the Asia-Pacific Climate Center (APCC), have all confirmed the onset of El Nino and forecast a trend of rainfall shortage and rising temperatures. Current forecasts indicate that El Nino will continue to strengthen through the end of 2026 and may persist into early 2027. At present, the probability of a very strong El Nino event is estimated at 60–65%, and this episode could rank among the most intense El Nino events recorded since 1950.

If this scenario materializes, Viet Nam could experience temperatures above the long-term average, fewer cold-air outbreaks, and widespread rainfall deficits, particularly in the Central Region, Central Highlands, and Southern Region. These conditions would heighten the risks of drought, water shortages, and saltwater intrusion during the final months of 2026 and early 2027.

Rainfall is forecast to be below normal during the peak rainy season in the Central Region. However, the possibility of extreme rainfall events occurring over short periods and within limited areas cannot be ruled out. The rainy season is also likely to end earlier than usual in the South Central Coast, Central Highlands, and Southern Region.

From July to September 2026, localized drought and water shortages may occur in areas outside the coverage of irrigation systems in coastal provinces stretching from Quang Tri to Khanh Hoa and Lam Dong. During the 2026 flood season, flows across river basins and reservoirs tend to remain below the long-term average. Although the number of storms and tropical depressions affecting Viet Nam is typically lower during El Nino years, exceptionally strong storms capable of causing severe damage may still occur. Therefore, disaster risks should not be underestimated in the coming period.

According to Mr. Khiem, by closely monitoring El Nino developments, the VNMHA advised the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment (MAE) to issue an official notice on the phenomenon as early as mid-April, along with an early assessment of potential water shortages submitted to the National Civil Defense Steering Committee. On June 4, the Ministry issued another official dispatch on strengthening proactive prevention and control measures against localized heavy rainfall, flash floods, and landslides during the 2026 rainy and storm season, as well as drought and saltwater intrusion risks during the 2026–2027 dry season.

The VNMHA has also continuously provided updates on El Nino to media agencies. In June, the department is expected to organize a workshop on hydro-meteorological forecasting and early warning for natural disasters in 2026, with discussions focusing on El Nino and its impacts on communities.

Turning climate information into economic intelligence 

In response to forecasts on El Nino developments, Deputy Minister Le Cong Thanh pointed out that the hydro-meteorological sector has currently focused on forecasts serving disaster prevention and control, including heatwaves, landslides, storms, and floods. However, minimizing broader economic losses across production sectors and identifying new growth opportunities are the core values that the sector has yet to fully realize.

As an example, he highlighted the potential impacts of this El Nino event on coffee production in Viet Nam, Brazil, and other major coffee-exporting countries. If widespread drought caused by El Nino reduces global output of agricultural products, Viet Nam could gain a significant advantage by forecasting early and implementing proactive measures to maintain production areas. Such preparations would allow the country to benefit from rising global rice and coffee prices, creating breakthroughs in agricultural trade. At the same time, reduced rainfall caused by El Nino could create favorable conditions for accelerating the construction of key national and local infrastructure projects.

Deputy Minister Le Cong Thanh stressed that identifying El Nino’s impacts on economic sectors could make a significant contribution to the country's goal of achieving double-digit economic growth. Therefore, the VNMHA needs to study the application of economic impact assessment models for climate change to quantify the effects of El Nino on economic growth, water security, agricultural production, and livelihood activities.

The research findings would provide a basis for advising the MAE on sectoral response plans and for recommending to the Government inter-sectoral action programs aimed at minimizing risks and capitalizing on opportunities arising from unusual climate conditions.

In the long term, the Deputy Minister directed the hydro-meteorological sector to develop an early warning system for the socio-economic impacts of large-scale climate phenomena such as El Nino and La Nina. Through this effort, the sector can gradually reinforce its role as a provider of foundational information for climate risk management and the country's sustainable development. At the same time, it is essential to establish and develop a genuine climate services model in Viet Nam that has been successfully implemented in many advanced countries and systematically documented by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in its specialized publications.

Responding to the Deputy Minister’s directives, Director General of the VNMHA Nguyen Thuong Hien affirmed that the agency would adopt a renewed approach to forecasting, early warning, and policy advisory for responding to extreme climate phenomena, particularly the 2026 El Nino event. Based on existing monitoring and forecasting results, the hydro-meteorological sector has a sufficient scientific basis to proactively advise the MAE in reporting to the Government and to recommend timely, coordinated response measures aimed at minimizing adverse impacts while capitalizing on socio-economic development opportunities arising from unusual climate conditions.

The Director General stated that the unit’s leadership would direct specialized units to urgently finalize impact assessments and propose sector-specific response measures. Priority will be given to advising on solutions to ensure water security and energy security, adjust agricultural production structures, improve the management and operation of irrigation systems, and strengthen the resilience of economic sectors to the risks of drought and water shortages caused by El Nino. At the same time, the agency will study and propose inter-sectoral coordination mechanisms to take advantage of opportunities arising from fluctuations in agricultural product markets and unique climate conditions