Heat of durian market : [Final] New growth cycle, opportunity for Viet Nam

Durian market enters a prolonged growth cycle

According to the Report on Durian Market Size and Share Outlook for the 2025–2035 period by Fact.MR's Food and Beverage Research Group, the durian industry is entering a prolonged growth cycle over the next decade, which is forecast to reshape the tropical fruit market, agricultural export systems, and global distribution networks for specialty foods.

The market is forecast to grow from USD 18.5 billion in 2025 to USD 27 billion by 2035, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 3.9%. This trend indicates that premium tropical fruits and imported foods are gaining wider acceptance among consumers, from wholesale markets and retail chains to specialized food channels.

Bài liên quan

Heat of durian market: [3] Cambodia accelerates exports through logistics

During the first half of the 2025–2030 period, the global durian market is projected to grow from USD 18.5 billion to approximately USD 22.3 billion, an increase of USD 3.8 billion. Growth will be driven primarily by the fresh durian segment, amid consumers' increasingly diverse food choices and continued growth in demand for premium tropical fruits.

In the 2030-2035 period, the market is forecast to continue expanding from USD 22.3 billion to USD 27 billion, up USD 4.7 billion. Growth during this period will be driven by greater access to specialty durian varieties in the mass market, alongside the development of agricultural platforms and increasingly favorable connections with existing fruit distribution systems.

For Viet Nam, the global durian market’s new growth cycle presents an opportunity to increase export volumes and raise the value per unit of product. As consumers increasingly seek high-quality durian, the greatest opportunities will go to growing areas and businesses that can produce uniform products, meet standards, and maintain quality throughout the entire journey from orchard to market.

Fresh durian still has enormous potential; the high-quality segment is expanding

Mordor Intelligence's fresh durian market analysis shows the fresh durian market is projected to grow from USD 5.6 billion in 2025 to USD 5.85 billion in 2026 and reach USD 7.31 billion by 2031, representing a CAGR of 4.54% during 2026–2031.

A key driver of the market is growing purchasing power in China. In 2024, China imported approximately 1.56 million tons of durian, continuing to strongly influence production, trade, and the development of growing areas across Southeast Asia.

Bài liên quan

Heat of durian market: [2] Thailand seeks to maintain position

For Viet Nam, China is currently an important market. Compared with other countries, Vietnamese durian benefits from geographical proximity, fast transportation, and abundant supply. However, maintaining this market requires meeting stringent quality control requirements, from growing areas and packaging to traceability, storage, and transportation.

Notably, the high-quality durian segment is recording strong demand in China and Singapore. In 2025, high-income consumers in Shanghai and Shenzhen were willing to pay more than USD 15/kg for Musang King durian. This trend is prompting Malaysian growers to step up geographical indication registration, standardize production, and tighten post-harvest quality control.

Singapore is also increasingly strengthening its role as a regional trading and durian re-export hub. From there, certified durian consignments are further shipped to high-value markets such as Hong Kong and Japan, where prices are relatively stable.

Asia-Pacific continues to play a central role

Bài liên quan

Heat of durian market: [1] China - Global consumption hub

By region, Asia-Pacific remains central to the global durian industry, accounting for 79.6% of the fresh durian market in 2025. The region is both a key production area and home to the world's largest consumer markets.

Within the region, China continues to play a key role in durian trade flows. Viet Nam enjoys a significant advantage thanks to its geographical proximity to this market. Combined road and sea transport corridors with transit times of around two days help shorten the process of bringing products from production areas to the market, thereby supporting the preservation of durian freshness and quality.

Meanwhile, Thailand faces additional pressure as import requirements have tightened following several food safety-related incidents.

Malaysia is pursuing a different strategy by focusing on the premium durian segment while leveraging cross-border road transport links to southern China to expand its market.

Middle East emerges as a fast-growing market

Alongside traditional markets in Asia, the Middle East is emerging as a highly potential region, with its market forecast to achieve a CAGR of 6.5% during the 2026–2031 period.

In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), durian consumption is increasing alongside the development of the Asian community and the growing presence of Halal-certified products in premium food chains.

Saudi Arabia has also recorded increasing import demand as the country advances its food security program. During the peak Ramadan gift-giving season, dedicated cargo flights help bring Musang King durian to the market weekly, creating additional room for high-value products.

Dubai is also strengthening its role as a regional logistics and re-export hub. Through Jebel Ali Port, durian can be further distributed to markets in East Africa and Central Asia, expanding its consumption beyond the Gulf countries.

Beyond the Middle East, demand in North America, Europe, South America, and Africa is also gradually increasing. However, these markets impose stricter requirements on residue levels, quality, storage, long-distance transportation, and the development of processed products.

The shift in demand toward the Middle East and regions outside Asia is opening up greater market space for Vietnamese durian. To move further into high-value segments and access distant markets, the industry needs to invest not only in fresh durian but also in processed and value-added products, while raising quality standards, controlling residues, and investing in storage and logistics.

The global durian market, particularly the fresh durian segment, is forecast to continue growing during the 2026–2031 period. However, competitive advantages will increasingly favor countries and businesses capable of controlling quality, meeting SPS requirements, ensuring traceability, organizing cold-chain systems, and building brands.

For Viet Nam, this represents both an opportunity to expand markets and a requirement to shift rapidly from growth based on area and output toward growth based on quality, standards, logistics and added value.