Germany: As temperatures rise, so does climate skepticism

Climate skeptics are no longer a small but noisy minority. They are now "a mass phenomenon," according to researchers at Flensburg University.

In a study published in the scientific journal Global Environmental Change, authors Katharina Gies and Emanuel Deutschmann reported that between 2022 and 2023, there was a significant increase in skeptical attitudes toward climate change among the majority of the 3,074 people surveyed. Some 59% said they had more doubts about climate change in 2023 than they had had in the previous year.

The researchers wrote that the respondents' individual economic situations could not be considered the primary explanation for the increase in skepticism. Other factors, they said, were much more decisive: A right-leaning political orientation, distrust of state institutions, and dissatisfaction with democracy.

Social psychologist Marlene Altenmüller said the Flensburg publication is important and fascinating, though she has doubts about its alarming tone. Other studies show that "the number of people who have doubts is still very small," she says. Altenmüller, a junior professor at the Leibniz Institute for Psychology in Trier, conducts research on science reception: how people perceive scientific evidence and what they think about the scientific system and its researchers.

Altenmüller's research indicates that people in Germany do not have fundamental doubts about scientific evidence. Rather, it varies depending on the topic and on the view of the group to which people feel they belong.

If a group has doubts about climate change, so do its members

Her work, and that of many other researchers, also shows that politically right-leaning people express more skepticism about climate change.

"If right-wing parties were suddenly to discover that we should in fact take action against climate change, my assumption is that the followers of these parties would also believe in climate change and would support political measures," Altenmüller said.

Nor does she believe that climate skeptics have a different personality structure. Instead, climate skepticism is more likely due to the fact that "people orientate themselves according to their group and its identity." The credo for most people is that content is secondary, or, as Altenmüller calls it, "Party over policy."

Underlying this is something psychologists call motivated reception. People always see the world through the lens of their own desires, ideas, values, and political ideologies, and anything that cannot be squared with their own ideas and values tends to be disparaged. Altenmüller's research demonstrates that all of us are predisposed to seeing the world through our own filters.

From climate skepticism to conspiracy theories

Both Altenmüller and the Flensburg researchers emphasize that climate change skepticism comes in different guises. One form is the rejection of climate policy measures. The basis for this may be the assumption that it won't be all that bad, or doubt that human activity is the cause. Another is the belief that all the talk about climate change is simply a con, a conspiracy.

This is the focus of the research of Stephan Lewandowsky, a professor of cognitive science at the universities of Bristol and Potsdam. Among other things, he examines the persistence of misinformation and conspiracy theories and is interested in the parameters that determine whether people accept or reject scientific evidence, especially regarding vaccines and climate change. "Certain people are more susceptible to conspiracy theories than others," he said.

The COVID-19 pandemic made this very apparent. Lewandowsky argues that for some people, conspiracy theories that apportion blame for a particular situation provide a welcome opportunity to escape from feelings like fear and loss of control. "That offers some brief psychological comfort to people," Lewandowsky says.

However, he goes on to explain that the comfort they derive from assigning blame does not last long. "There's good evidence to suggest that people who do fall into that rabbit hole over time are suffering," he said. "They're less likely to hold their jobs. They lose social contacts. They become mentally challenged."

Why climate skepticism is hardly an issue in India

Climate skepticism and conspiracy theories are mostly a Western phenomenon. Researchers observe them the most in the US, Europe, and Australia. In India and other countries of the global south, climate change is already a question of daily survival, and has been for some time. "In India, a lot of people still suffer from [not] getting access to clean drinking water," says Jagadish Thaker, senior lecturer at the University of Queensland, Australia, and an expert in climate change communication.

For years now, he says, people in the global south have been experiencing firsthand how climate change is exacerbating problems through rising temperatures and extreme weather events.

Consequently, measures to reduce emissions and adapt to changing living conditions are not seen as a matter of political ideology. According to Thaker, people in India are trying to mitigate their vulnerability to climate change while still pursuing economic development.