El Niño intensifies pressure on Quang Ngai's water resources

Under the influence of El Niño, Quang Ngai's water resources are coming under increasing pressure as heatwaves arrive earlier than usual, rainfall declines, and river and stream flows remain below the long-term average. Hydrometeorological authorities have warned that prolonged water shortages could directly affect agricultural production, domestic water supply, and industrial activities unless timely mitigation measures are implemented.

According to Nham Xuan Sy, Deputy Director of the Quang Ngai Hydrometeorological Station, the eastern part of the province has been significantly affected by El Niño since the beginning of the year. Heatwaves arrived earlier than the long-term average and persisted longer, while a sharp decline in rainfall has caused water storage levels in many reservoirs to fall considerably.

At the same time, river and stream flows in eastern Quang Ngai have remained below the long-term average, reducing water storage capacity and limiting irrigation supplies for several lowland areas in the southern part of the province during the summer-autumn crop season.

More concerning is that the latest forecasts indicate no sign of El Niño weakening. From August to October 2026, the ENSO pattern is expected to remain in the El Niño phase and strengthen further, with a 90% probability of reaching strong-to-very-strong intensity. Between November 2026 and January 2027, that probability is forecast to rise to around 95%.

In particular, El Niño is expected to reach very strong intensity between October and December 2026, with an estimated probability of 81%, increasing the likelihood of below-average rainfall during the 2026 rainy season.

According to Sy, strong El Niño events are typically associated with below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures. These conditions reduce inflows to irrigation and hydropower reservoirs as well as river systems across the province, heightening the risk of water shortages for both agricultural production and domestic use in the coming months.

Meteorological experts also warn that water shortages are unlikely to occur evenly across the province. Areas at the downstream ends of river systems, upland regions, and localities that depend heavily on surface water are expected to face the greatest risks. As prolonged heat increases water demand for households, agriculture, and industry, pressure on reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure will continue to intensify. Authorities are therefore urged to closely monitor water availability, allocate water resources efficiently among different areas, and strengthen the inspection and maintenance of irrigation works to minimize water losses.

Expanding the use of water-saving irrigation technologies, adjusting cropping patterns to match available water supplies, and promoting water conservation among local communities will help mitigate drought impacts and ensure adequate water resources for socio-economic development amid the growing challenges of climate change.

In addition to infrastructure-based measures, strengthening weather and water-resource forecasting and early-warning systems will play a crucial role. Local authorities should regularly update hydrometeorological information to develop flexible water allocation plans and minimize drought-related losses. At the same time, greater efforts are needed to raise public awareness so that residents and businesses can adopt water-saving practices and improve their resilience to increasingly unpredictable weather conditions.

Declining water resources will affect not only the 2026-2027 winter-spring crop but also the 2027 summer-autumn season. Local authorities are therefore urged to identify areas where irrigation water cannot be guaranteed and consider switching to more drought-tolerant crops. They are also encouraged to implement rotational irrigation schedules, promote water-saving practices, and raise public awareness of water resource conservation.

"From now on, particular attention should be given to storing water in reservoirs to support the 2026-2027 winter-spring crop while preparing drought response measures well in advance. Water storage is essential not only for agricultural production but also for ensuring adequate domestic water supplies," Sy emphasized.

Beyond agriculture, the Quang Ngai Hydrometeorological Station has also advised industrial zones, particularly the Dung Quat Economic Zone, to develop appropriate water management plans to maintain production should water availability continue to decline.

Forecasts indicate that if El Niño persists at high intensity, groundwater levels in many areas will continue to fall. Coastal districts and the Ly Son Special Zone are expected to face a higher risk of saltwater intrusion, while groundwater levels in many wells may decline, affecting household water supplies, irrigation, and livestock production.

As climate change intensifies, proactive water resource management, efficient water use, and conservation are considered critical measures to reduce drought risks and ensure water security for Quang Ngai's socio-economic development in the years ahead.