2026: Vietnamese agriculture navigates a new era of quality and sustainability

As we move into 2026, growth figures in agro-forestry-fishery exports are no longer the only part of the story. In a discussion between the Vietnam Agriculture and Nature News and Dr. Tran Cong Thang, Director of the Institute for Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Environment (ISPAE), several core issues were raised.

Sir, 2025 continued to record record-breaking agricultural export figures. In your opinion, what is the core reason for this growth?

In the first 11 months of 2025, our country's agro-forestry-fishery export turnover was estimated at 64.0 billion USD, a 12.6% increase compared to the same period in 2024. This is higher than the 62.6 billion USD recorded for the entirety of 2024, with a projected trade surplus of approximately 21 billion USD for the year. Agricultural GDP growth reached about 3.9%, exceeding the set target despite the complex natural disasters and diseases of the past year. This once again proves that agriculture serves as the backbone of the economy.

Many sectors have maintained and increased their turnover by improving quality, diversifying products, and applying science and technology in production, processing, and preservation to meet the increasing demands of the market. A typical example is the quality of rice exports, which has improved significantly as high-quality rice now accounts for the majority.

The seafood industry's export turnover is expected to hit the 11.2 - 11.3 billion USD mark for the whole of 2025, the highest level ever recorded. Deep-processed product groups, squid, octopus, and marine fish have all maintained double-digit growth. Similarly, 2025 marked a major leap for the coffee industry with record export turnover exceeding 8 billion USD. The industry has shifted strongly toward deep processing, technological investment, and quality enhancement (specialty coffee, instant coffee), while diversifying products (organic, roasted, and ground coffee). This confirms our position in the global value chain, we are no longer just selling raw materials but exporting high-value, environmentally friendly products.

In the cashew industry, the achievements of 2025 also stemmed from businesses proactively diversifying distribution channels, managing risks, and investing in deep processing. This helped the Vietnamese cashew industry increase its value and maintain its leading export position globally, despite growing challenges from new competitors in Africa. Although there is still much to be done, the quality of agricultural products has improved, meeting the technical, social, and environmental standards of importing markets. Over the past year, the number of EU warnings regarding the quality of our agricultural products also decreased by 50%, which clearly demonstrates the marked improvement in the quality of exported goods.

Dependence on a few large markets remains an "Achilles' heel." For example, when a partner changes its rice import policy, the rice market is immediately put on the defensive. What is your assessment of the sustainability of Vietnamese agricultural exports and the risk of "putting all your eggs in one basket" in the context of a market predicted to remain volatile in 2026?

Dr. Tran Cong Thang: It can be seen that although the United States applied countervailing duties on Vietnamese goods, including agro-forestry-fishery products, in 2025, exports to this market still maintained significant growth. This is partly explained by Vietnamese enterprises proactively pushing shipments before the taxes took effect, restructuring products, and taking advantage of trade incentives to maintain export flow.

Along with these major markets, we also export to many others such as Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, the Middle East, and Singapore. These are all markets with very high standards. Vietnamese agricultural products are exported to nearly 200 countries and territories, showing market diversity. However, it is true that the three largest markets account for the majority. Furthermore, some products rely mainly on a few key markets - such as fresh fruit (dragon fruit, bananas), rubber, and cassava exported to China, or wood and furniture products exported mainly to the U.S., which carries certain risks.

Regarding rice, in 2025, Vietnamese exports were clearly affected by traditional markets reducing imports. Specifically, the Philippines, the largest market for Vietnamese rice—suspended imports in the final months of the year, and Indonesia almost completely stopped importing from us. This caused total turnover and export volume to decrease significantly compared to the previous year. However, 2025 also recorded positive signals from new markets and a shift in export structure.

Specifically, Vietnam increased exports to several African markets and China at high growth rates. This increase partially offset the decline from the Philippines and Indonesia, helping Vietnam maintain its position among the top exporters. A very notable point is that the structure of Vietnamese rice exports has shifted more strongly toward high-quality products. By the end of 2025, the proportion of high-quality rice exports, including high-quality white rice and various types of fragrant rice, accounted for about 69% of total export volume. This means Vietnam is not only exporting large quantities of ordinary raw rice but also increasing the proportion of high-value varieties.

According to the Institute's observations, what are the "new rules of the game" (such as EUDR, Carbon Footprint, etc.) that importing powers are setting, making it impossible for Vietnamese agriculture to continue with old production mindsets?

Sustainability and the requirement to "eat green and eat responsibly" are no longer trends; they have become mandatory rules in the international arena. From 2026 onward, major markets, especially the European Union, are applying a series of new environmental and sustainability regulations. This forces Vietnamese agriculture to change its production methods, supply chain management, and traceability organization if it does not want to lose access to high-value markets.

Vietnam has been proactively implementing a methodical preparation roadmap to adapt to the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). We see this not only as a mandatory requirement to maintain exports to the EU but also as a driving force for green transformation and long-term sustainable agricultural development. Since July 2023, Vietnam has issued an Action Plan Framework to adapt to the EUDR, linking compliance with the Strategy for Sustainable Agriculture and Rural Development through 2050. On this basis, the implementation machinery has been consolidated under a public-private partnership (PPP) model from the central to local levels. This includes the Joint Working Group on EUDR, commodity-specific PPP groups, and specialized task forces in the forestry sector. We have also formed public-private alliances in Dak Lak and Lam Dong to implement these measures directly in key production areas.

Technically, Vietnam is focusing on building and updating databases on forests and planting areas. We have piloted EUDR compliance solutions for the coffee industry since 2024 and issued specific technical guidelines for sectors such as coffee, wood, and rubber to meet GPS/polygon positioning and traceability requirements down to each plot of land. Simultaneously, communication, training, and regular dialogue with the European Commission (EC), particularly the Directorate-General for Environment (DG ENV), have been intensified to handle technical obstacles and discrepancies in mapping and concepts.

Vietnam is also actively collaborating with businesses and international organizations to develop green, low-emission agriculture. In the coming time, the focus will be on perfecting the legal framework in cultivation and forestry, while developing a centralized data platform that integrates traceability and risk assessment. This will support businesses and farmers in complying with the EUDR effectively and sustainably.

Looking at global trends, post-Covid food demand continues to rise, but accessibility has become more difficult due to logistics disruptions and trade protectionism. In your opinion, will this "scarce yet hard to buy" trend continue in 2026, and what policies can resolve this?

Looking at the overall global food flow after Covid, the "scarce yet hard to buy" model, where food demand increases continuously while accessibility is limited by logistics disruptions and trade protectionism, is likely to continue into 2026 without strategic response measures.

First, the trend of trade protectionism and policy barriers is increasing, with many tariff measures, quotas, or policy risks causing uncertainty for global trade. The World Trade Organization (WTO) even predicts that global trade growth in the 2025-2026 period will be hampered by tariff levels and policy uncertainty, making the flow of goods (including food) less favorable than before.

Second, logistics and supply chain issues have not fully recovered since the pandemic. Combined with geopolitical tensions and rising protectionist trends in some major economies, the scenario of "scarce yet hard to buy", where supply may be interrupted, prices fluctuate, and vulnerable markets lose access to international food sources, is a plausible scenario in 2026.

To resolve this situation and improve the sustainability of global food flows, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment is developing several strategic solutions as follows:

First, diversifying markets and supply chains: Over-reliance on a few trading partners or key logistics routes makes countries vulnerable to fluctuations. Diversifying supply sources and expanding cooperation with new regions, including African, South Asian, or Latin American markets, can reduce dependency risks and enhance supply chain flexibility.

Second, strengthening regional linkages and open trade frameworks: Promoting trade liberalization through Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), tariff preference mechanisms, and trade facilitation agreements will help reduce barriers and transaction costs, thereby helping to lower food prices for importing countries.

Third, developing sustainable logistics and technology application: Investing in the upgrade of port infrastructure, warehouses, and linked transportation, as well as applying digital technology to forecast demand, optimize logistics, and improve supply chain efficiency, will help reduce costs and risks both now and in the future.

Fourth, strengthening international cooperation and strategic reserves: Multilateral cooperation mechanisms on food security, sharing information on stocks, and forming regional strategic reserves will reduce price volatility and overcome supply disruptions when crises occur.

Thank you, Sir!